Minus Broncos, Guru is going all shock, no chalk

The ole Gridiron Guru went .500 in the wild-card round of the NFL playoffs.

With 20-20 hindsight:

One easily can see how the Texans’ powerful running game could carry Houston past Cincinnati to its first playoff victory in franchise history.

And as I preached from my soap box to anybody who would listen, one also could see a scenario where the Broncos would beat the injury-riddled Steelers.

Granted, I didn’t pick the fightin’ Tim Tebows to win, but as the week wore on, the Steelers’ myriad injuries simply became too much to ignore.

But enough with the past, this is after all about the future. And my future involves shock not chalk; I’m going all upset in the divisional playoffs, baby. Well, all upset except for the fightin’ Tim Tebows against the Patriots.

The only favorite I’m picking this weekend is New England, and without further ado, here are my reasons why:

Saturday

New Orleans at San Francisco, 2:30 p.m. (KASA) – Houston reminded me last weekend that running games and defenses win championships; it worked last weekend for the Texans, and it’s going to work here for the 49ers.

Consider this: No doubt the Saints can put up points and put up points in a hurry, but the last time they played outdoors was at Tennessee in Week 14, and they managed just 22 points. Ten of the Saints’ last 12 games have been played indoors. They’re 1-1 under the sun, including a close win against the Titans and a loss at the lowly Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Last year in the first round of the playoffs, New Orleans was upset away from its dome on the West Coast in a not-so-super effort at Seattle.

San Franciso has a running game, and it has a defense – the best in the NFC and arguably the best in the game.

Pick: 49ers, 24-20.

Line: Saints by 3½.

Denver at New England, 6 p.m. (KREZ; KRSJ 100.5 FM) – Contrary to my aforementioned argument that running games and defenses wins championships, the Patriots don’t feature much of either. But in this case, their offense will suffice.

There will be no miracle at the Razor, and this time around, it won’t even be a close shave.

Pick: Patriots, 38-20.

Line: Patriots by 13½.

Sunday

Houston at Baltimore, 11 a.m. (KREZ) – Two strong running games. Two strong defenses. Tough call.

But the Texans have two running backs to the Ravens’ one. And the Texans have Andre Johnson, too. If this turns into a field-goal affair, then I’m comfortable with that two-headed backfield and the rookie QB finding Johnson enough for a victory.

Pick: Texans, 17-14.

Line: Ravens by 7½.

N.Y. Giants at Green Bay, 2:30 p.m. (KASA) – Last time around, the Giants nearly beat the Packers and that was without one of their three star pass-rushers.

Green Bay’s biggest weakness down the stretch has been the offensive line and keeping Aaron Rodgers upright. That situation hasn’t much improved; there’s no running game; there’s no defense.

New York has an underrated running game that’s now healthy with Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs; they’ve got the quarterback and the weapons at wide receiver; they’ve got a pass-rushing defense with Jason Pierre-Paul, Justin Tuck and Osi Umenyiora.

AND ... Eli Manning’s Giants won a playoff game the last time they were at Lambeau Field.

I’m sold.

Pick: Giants 27-24.

Line: Packers by 7½.