Log In


Reset Password
Opinion Editorial Cartoons Op-Ed Editorials Letters to the Editor

Flawed estimates

Universal background checks are still worthwhile despite the low numbers

Gun laws may be singular in their ability to evoke such a range of positions along the spectrum, from no restrictions to no access at all.

There are, at the fringes, those who believe that any infringement whatsoever is an untenable violation of a sacred constitutional right – regardless of whether the gun seeker is a convicted violent criminal, a juvenile or the weapon in question is a grenade launcher. Conversely, there are those who believe that no individual citizen has any reason whatsoever to possess a firearm. Through the ages, though, there has been some consensus among reasonable minds that restricting access to guns for some people is an appropriate constitutional tradeoff in the interest of public safety. Background checks are a critical mechanism for protecting public safety, and the 2013 Colorado Legislature was right to extend them to private-party gun sales.

Those transfers were previously ungoverned by any screening of the firearm’s recipient, creating a loophole large enough to be worthy of closing. The measure that did so, however, was based on flawed data that massively overestimated the number of gun sales that would be subject to background checks. According to an Associated Press analysis, just 13,600 gun transfers have been subject to the new background check requirement – far short of the 210,000 estimated for the first year of the law.

The estimates were provided by the Colorado Legislative Council Review, a nonpartisan research panel that provides lawmakers with cost and impact analyses of proposed legislation. The panel’s numbers came from national figures regularly cited by gun-control advocates but criticized by those who oppose gun laws.

While it is not particularly impressive that the projections were so grossly off the mark, the new law is working. Of the 13,600 checks it has triggered, 260 were denied. That is sufficient to justify the requirement. For reasons deemed sufficient to curtail gun ownership rights, 260 individuals were subject to a screening that prevented them access to a gun. While the numbers are small, the law is functioning effectively.

What remains in question, though, is at what cost to taxpayers. The legislative council recommended a $3 million budgetary boost to the Colorado Bureau of Investigation to implement the law and keep up with the anticipated workload increase. CBI has hired fewer than half of the full-time staff the funding would have paid for since the background check surge did not materialize. It is not known how much of the $3 million is left in the bank. Now that the law’s first year on the books has passed, it is time to find out. An adjustment seems appropriate, given the distance between expectations and reality.

The misestimate is somewhat embarrassing, but it does not make the background check law inappropriate or ineffective. It means its scope is narrower than anticipated and therefore its cost is too. That is a relatively easy fix that will save the state money, and if fewer people than projected are inconvenienced by the private sale background checks, then all the better for those who opposed them.



Reader Comments