Locals will continue to see rising home prices and rent this year, because the gap between supply and demand in the market is going to continue, area economists, demographers and real estate specialists are predicting.

“If someone wants to bring a business to town with 25 or 30 workers, where are they going to live?” said Bob Allen, an independent real estate consultant and appraiser who tracks the local market. “New construction of single family homes in the last few years in rural La Plata County has been below the 38-year average.”

Allen spoke at the 15th annual Real Estate Forecast at the Community Concert Hall at Fort Lewis College on Wednesday evening, which was presented by The Wells Group. More than 250 area real estate brokers and agents, along with the banking community, attended, and the low-inventory problem resounded throughout, whether it was multifamily, single-family or commercial real estate.

Good news/bad news

Much of the good news has a downside, Allen and Wells Group owner/broker John Wells said.

The unemployment rate in La Plata County, about 3.3 percent, is lower than the state and the national rates, and employers in trades such as construction are having a hard time finding workers.

Tourism, which increased in 2014 at the area’s biggest attractions, is predicted to increase again in 2015 because of low fuel prices, Wells said. Many people who move here or buy vacation homes first come as tourists. Two hundred new hotel rooms on the horizon, scheduled to open in 2016, will give Durango more tourism capacity.

“The wild card is the drought,” Allen said. “If we have a wildfire like we did in 2002, people will stay away.”

Confidence is up in the construction industry, but materials and labor are both more expensive, Wells Group broker Chelsea Krueger said.

“The houses that are selling are below $400,000, and the margins are so slim, if they have to carry a spec house for six months, it will eat up all their profits.”

Wells said he knows developers who have been looking for suitable parcels for building for 18 months or longer.

Baby boomers are beginning to look for senior housing and services, Wells said. It’s an opportunity to create new jobs and services, but, once again, the availability here is low.

The need for more commercial space, including warehouses, is high. More space might entice more employers and businesses here, but they would also increase the need for housing.

Developers who have lots plotted and infrastructure installed should see strong sales, Allen said, because when people can’t find housing, they often decide to build.

Sales of property for agriculture will continue to be sluggish, Wells said, because there are fewer people willing to work the land or who can afford to with current land prices.

Bayfield, where building has been stagnant for at least the last three years, may be the best place to build and grow.

“It’s affordable and attractive,” Wells said. “It has a great lifestyle and great schools, and housing prices are close to $100,000 less than in Durango.”

abutler@durangoherald.com