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Rain is expected to wind down

Mostly warm, dry weather predicted over weekend
The umbrellas came out on a rainy Wednesday afternoon in downtown Durango. The showers are expected to taper off Thursday night into Friday.

Even though it will be tempting to leave umbrellas and slickers at home for the next few days, there is still a chance of occasional thunderstorms.

“(Thursday) morning, Durangoans may wake up to a few showers,” said meteorologist Julie Malingowski from the Grand Junction office of the National Weather Service. “But it will be pretty dry Friday and through the weekend, with just isolated thunderstorms.”

By 8 a.m. Wednesday, Durango had received 0.12 inches of rain. The weather service reported the Durango-La Plata County Airport, the official location for measuring Durango’s rain, had received 0.14 inches of rain between midnight and 5 p.m. Wednesday.

Wednesday evening in northwestern New Mexico saw more extreme weather. At 7:35 p.m., the weather service’s Albuquerque office issued an alert for San Juan County, New Mexico, expecting torrential rains, quarter-inch-sized hail and possible flash flooding. The affected area included Farmington and Aztec, coming as far north as Cedar Hill, which is near the Colorado-New Mexico border. The alert ended at 8 p.m.

The weather service is predicting a 30 percent chance of rain throughout the day Thursday in Durango, dropping to 20 percent before 7 p.m. Thursday will continue to be a little cooler, forecasters said, with a high of 81.

Friday is predicted to have a 20 percent chance of showers between 1 and 7 p.m., warming up to 84.

The chance for precipitation Saturday drops even lower, down to 10 percent between 1 p.m. and 1 a.m. Sunday.

While Tropical Storm Erika is approaching Florida this weekend, the Pacific Ocean’s tropical depressions, which is where Southwest Colorado mostly gets its moisture, are only slight right now, Malingowski said.

Looking ahead, with temperatures still rising in the critical El Niño area of the Pacific, the Climate Prediction Center says all of its models are now forecasting above-normal precipitation for Southwest Colorado, peaking in late fall or early winter. There’s a 90 percent chance that it will continue through the winter and an 85 percent chance it will last until early spring.

Climatologist Bill Patzert of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Jet Propulsion Laboratory in California famously called it a “Godzilla El Niño,” but while he was engaging in a little hyperbole, scientists are predicting an El Niño as strong or stronger than 1997’s, which holds the record since tracking began in 1950.

That may mean good news to skiers and snowboarders, who are already salivating to try Purgatory Resort’s new Lift 8.

abutler@durangoherald.com



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