DENVER – New voters continue to lean unaffiliated in Colorado, according to voter-registration data over the last month.
It is unclear how that information might impact Democrats competing for the party’s presidential nomination in Colorado.
Presumably, Bernie Sanders would need newly registered voters to steer away from registering unaffiliated, because he needs Democrats to support him in next year’s March 1 caucus meetings.
Sanders has been in a fight for voters who have felt abandoned by the existing political structure. Those voters would need to join the Democratic Party to vote for him in a caucus or primary. Often those voters never pledged allegiance to any political party in the past.
This is less critical for Hillary Clinton, because she has more mainstream support from existing establishment Democrats. Still, she will need to compete for every vote.
The Durango Herald studied the most recent voter-registration data, which represents an important late-summer campaign outreach time.
Of the 11,639 newly registered voters in Colorado in September, 47 percent went unaffiliated, 36 percent registered Democrat and 17 percent filed as a Republican.
Democrats gained 4,153 newly registered voters, compared with 5,499 unaffiliated and 1,977 Republican.
Numbers are more favorable to the Democratic Party in La Plata County, where Democrats gained 45 newly registered voters. Another 44 registered unaffiliated, and Republicans lost 18 voters. The county is split evenly between Republicans and Democrats at 31 percent each, with another 36 percent representing the unaffiliated vote.
Party totals show that the state is comprised of 37 percent unaffiliated, 31 percent Republican and 30 percent Democrat. The numbers are unchanged over the month.
So, how does the registration data impact the Democratic nomination?
Longtime Colorado political analyst Eric Sondermann said the Democrat candidates will simply need to play within their own existing world.
“You’re playing with the universe you have,” Sondermann said. “If I’m Bernie Sanders, or his campaign, the number that registered unaffiliated, or the number that registered Republican, are immaterial to me. I’m playing with the Democratic universe.”
Sanders’ campaign did not return repeated requests for comment left by the Herald to discuss campaign strategy in Colorado.
It would benefit Sanders to go beyond attracting new voters and persuade those who align with the Democratic Party to support him as a candidate, despite his identity as an Independent senator from Vermont.
Sondermann said the Colorado caucus system can be an opportunity for Sanders to motivate Democrats to jump from Clinton’s ship, though he said it will take a gigantic effort. The caucus system tends to discourage new participants and political neophytes, who tend to be younger.
At caucus meetings, party members stump for candidates and then elect delegates to select candidates at nominating conventions.
“If (Sanders) can peel off from logical Hillary supporters, so much the better,” Sondermann said. “But I think that they would have to significantly imitate the Obama showing here eight years ago, which is with younger voters and not traditional participants. ... The Obama phenomenon is a once-in-a-generation, once-in-a-lifetime phenomenon.”
Brad Komar, a Clinton campaign spokesman in Colorado, said the former secretary of state is taking nothing for granted in the critical swing-state.
In recent weeks, Clinton has increased her campaign presence, especially in attracting Latino voters, a voting bloc that Sanders has struggled with.
She also has gained support from members of President Barack Obama’s 2008 team. In 2008, the then-senator motivated supporters to attend caucus meetings on his behalf, yielding large delegate counts.
“Colorado has a closed-caucus system, and Secretary Clinton is dedicated to earning the support of every Democrat,” Komar said.
The recent Democratic presidential debate – in which the candidates met for the first time on stage – offers the Clinton campaign a chance to seize momentum from her above-average performance.
“We feel the momentum,” Komar said. “(Supporters) felt the electricity grow throughout the night. We had people commit to volunteer right then and there for the caucus ... that will help build our volunteer organization that is so important to winning a caucus.”
pmarcus@durangoherald.com
