Monday rains swept through Durango, lasting several hours and leaving the town overcast in its wake. More precipitation is expected in the coming days. (Jerry McBride/Durango Herald file)
Monday rains swept through Durango, lasting several hours and leaving the town overcast in its wake. More precipitation is expected in the coming days. (Jerry McBride/Durango Herald file)

Moisture is expected to move into Southwest Colorado this week and next week, but weather forecasters aren’t declaring it the start of monsoons.

Monsoons in the Southwest U.S. are characterized by a high-pressure system that sets up over Texas and carries moisture into the region. But the center of the most recent activity sits over the northern and central United States, said Gillian Felton, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Grand Junction.

“As far as whether the monsoon is here or not: No, I don’t think this is necessarily obviously that,” Felton said. “But we do have, with this setup, moisture just kind of remaining in the area, and so that’s what’s bringing those daily precipitation chances.”

The weather forecast shows showers all the way through July 22. Yet, Durango may not see much rain hitting the ground until later this week, Felton said.

“With this initial onset of moisture, we might see more very strong wind gusts or virga, which is when the rain evaporates before it reaches the ground,” she said. “The more this moisture lingers over the next few days, the more rain we might actually be able to see reach the ground.”

Felton said she expects consistent showers most afternoons this week.

In June, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced the forming of El Nino in the Pacific Ocean. El Nino forms when the temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are 0.5 degrees Celsius above the average over several months, according to NOAA. One of the most significant effects of El Nino is increased hurricane activity, which in turn can usher rainfall to Colorado.

“El Nino can favor a more active hurricane season in the Eastern and Central Pacific Ocean, and a lot of times, when we get a very large plume of moisture moving through, it could be from the remnants of those systems,” Felton said. “It’s not a guarantee, but it is a possibility, and it’s something that is a little bit more well understood when it comes to the connection between El Nino and the monsoon.”

While El Nino might bring wetter weather, Colorado is unlikely to see the effects until the tail end of monsoon season heading into the fall, Felton said. But a potentially wetter summer may follow as El Nino effects are often more prominent the following summer.

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