A “miracle May” has turned around grim water-supply prospects for the region, at least for this year, several speakers told the Upper Colorado River Commission on Thursday in Durango.
The commission has one representative from each of the four Upper Colorado River Basin states (Colorado, Wyoming, Utah and New Mexico) and one federal representative. They meet twice a year in different states.
As of a month ago, snowpack was low at 116 mountain sites, and spring melt began about a month earlier than normal, said Bureau of Reclamation representative Chris Cutler. Runoff was expected to be about 74 percent of average. Then, the cool rainy miracle May happened.
“We not only stopped the runoff. We increased snow in some places,” Cutler said. “This was a drastic improvement in outlook.”
The entire basin saw 150 percent of average precipitation in May.
“This was a lifesaver,” he said.
He showed a graph with a multi-year trend of declining flows in the Colorado River Basin. “We haven’t seen average runoff very often,” he said.
Lake Powell is a critical part of the complex river compact requirements in the seven-state Colorado River Basin. Water levels in Lake Powell and Lake Mead have been declining year by year. Before the May rains, this year’s inflow to Powell was predicted to be 42 percent of normal. It’s now projected to be 70 percent, Cutler said.
“It’s great news, but it’s still 70 percent of average. We’re not out of the woods,” he said.
The four Upper Basin states are required to deliver a certain amount of water each year to the three Lower Basin states – California, Arizona and Nevada – based on an average over 10 years. This is measured at Lee’s Ferry in the Grand Canyon below Lake Powell. In addition, both Powell and Mead have critical water levels, below which they could no longer generate hydroelectric power. It’s a major priority to stay above those levels.
The forecast is for Powell to be about 14 feet above that level at the end of this year, Cutler said. “We’re in much better shape than before,” he said. The water level in Mead is about 7 feet above the critical level for hydrogeneration, which is referred to as the minimum power pool.
Hydropower from Bureau of Reclamation dams is marketed through the Water and Power Authority to wholesale suppliers such as Tri-State and Excel. WAPA representative Lynn Jeka said Powell currently represents about 75 percent of power generation from Colorado River projects. Upstream reservoirs – Navajo, Blue Mesa, and Flaming Gorge – are the backups to release more water if necessary to keep Powell above the minimum power pool level, she said.
Jeka said WAPA has contractual obligations to supply power to its customers, and if hydrogeneration isn’t meeting those obligations, WAPA must buy power from elsewhere to make up the difference. That cost $66 million in 2014 and is expected to be $24 million this year, she said.
Economic analyst Jeremy Aguero talked about the real value of water: “If we think about water and what it means to the economy, there’s no greater economic issue facing the Western U.S. than the real value of water. Without it, we don’t have an economy.”
The Colorado River Basin generates $1.4 trillion in economic benefits, Aguero said, but, “the true value of the resource is almost inestimable.”
