Chances are, in the new year, you won’t be trading hours of Netflix binge-watching to use that shiny new gym pass.

It’s doubtful you’ll finally pick up that dusty first edition of Moby Dick to impress your friends at the book club.

And, even though you’ve promised yourself a million times, it’s not likely you’ll swap that delicious piece of fried chicken for a banana.

New Year’s resolutions, research shows, do not work.

According to a study by the University of Scranton, about 45 percent of Americans set New Year’s resolutions, and of those inspirited hopefuls, only 8 percent achieve their goals.

Not surprisingly, most Americans eye some sort of self-improvement, such as weight loss, healthier living, saving money or improving relationships.

But according to that same report, only 75 percent of people maintain their resolution through the first week, and by the year’s halfway mark (July 1), nearly 50 percent of resolution-makers have dropped out.

Starting out fast

Take, for instance, The Durango Sports Club on Florida Road.

“There’s typically an uptick in the beginning of the year,” said owner Will Thomas. “It’s noticeable in members, but it’s way more noticeable in the number of people coming in.”

In January 2015, Thomas recorded 5,248 check-ins. But just a month later, that number dropped almost 10 percent to 4,829 visits.

“We all know it’s true,” said Thomas, referring to the New Year’s resolution drop-off.

Kelli Jaycox, recreation manager for the city of Durango, said January is “by far the busiest” month at the Durango Community Recreation Center, with 28,427 check-ins in the first month of 2015. However, just a month later, that number fell to 25,918, and by August, just 17,627 scanned in for a workout (though it’s important to note the facility is temporarily closed for maintenance that month).

Over at Illete Fitness in Bodo Park, owner Drew Malhmood said the small gym doesn’t see a lot of traffic by New Year’s goal-setters.

“People tend to go to bigger box gyms to work on resolutions,” Malhmood said. “And then when that starts to die off, personal training and more specialized gyms tend to get more business, typically around spring break and right before summer.”

Panic, resolution, failure

Even those with financial goals can head to the same dead ends.

“It’s the same effect as those who flood the gym in January,” said personal finance coach Matt Kelly, whose column, Money Savvy, appears in the Herald. “I see an uptick in mid-January about the time credit card statements come in. People have that ‘oh (expletive) moment’ when they see what they spent on the holidays.”

Kelly said resolutions range from getting out of debt and living on a budget to aspiring to save for a vacation.

He said the “New Year’s resolution effect” usually trails out by mid-March, and is rekindled again in the spring, right before tax season.

“But most people don’t make it out of January with their resolutions, period,” he said.

Realistic, measurable

The New Year’s resolution tradition has its beginnings in religious origins, with the Babylonians vowing to return borrowed objects to the gods, the Romans making promises to the god Janus and the medieval knights taking a renewed commitment each year to chivalry.

But today, many just see Jan. 1 as a good opportunity to turn a new leaf: a new year, a new start.

And all is not lost for resolution-makers.

Even University of Scranton professor John Norcross, a self-proclaimed New Year’s resolution authority and author of the university’s study, says resolutions can work, as long as people believe it can be done and set realistic goals.

Norcross said in a 2013 Time magazine interview that one of the best ways to fulfill resolutions is to keep them simple. Rather than saying, “I’m going to lose 20 pounds in a year,” a more achievable goal is to try to lose 2 pounds in a month.

“Many people confuse fantasy with reality,” Norcross said. “Resolutions are supposed to be specific and realistic and measurable.”

Outlining your plan, having a buddy system, tracking your plan and not considering a slipup as failure are all useful tips when looking for a fresh start in the new year, the psychology professor said.

“We say take resolutions seriously or don’t take them at all,” Norcross said in a 2012 NPR interview. “You can start a resolution on Feb. 1, March 1, your birthday, the beginning of summer. People who push themselves prematurely into a resolution without having a specific action plan are quite likely to fail.

“So, pick a day when you’re ready,” he said. “Set the quit date or the start date for the resolution, make sure you’re ready and then take it. The change of the calendar may not be the right time for everybody.”

jromeo@durangoherald.com