A multiday pattern of unsettled weather will bring a good chance of rain and snow to Southwest Colorado beginning Tuesday night and extending through Saturday.
The moisture is needed.
A La Niña pattern, which is typically associated with below-average snowfall in Southwest Colorado, formed this winter and remains in place.
Snowpack in the San Juan, Animas, Dolores and San Miguel river basins is only 78% of the 30-year average, according to the Natural Resources Conservation Service’s Snotel snowpack data.
“It looks like we’ll have an unsettled weather pattern deepening over the West Coast and moving through our region this week and ahead of that we have strong southwest winds that will continue to provide moisture across our region,” said Erin Walter, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Grand Junction.
The first round of moisture is expected to arrive Tuesday night in Southwest Colorado.
The unsettled pattern is expected to bring rain or rain-snow mixes to towns along Southwest Colorado’s river valleys, including Durango and Pagosa Springs. Snow is expected in the high country.
Silverton and Telluride can expect between 2 to 4 inches of snowfall Tuesday night and Wednesday morning before the first wave of moisture clears out of the region.
“This is just kind of a prolonged period of unsettled weather. It’s not going to be continuous,” Walter said.
The bulk of the storm is expected to move in Friday night into Saturday.
“That’s when we’ll see some of those colder temperatures and a better chance for snow at lower valleys,” Walter said.
On Wednesday, moisture might begin with rain in Durango and lower elevations and turn to snow overnight. Durango is forecast to have a 40% chance of snow Wednesday night.
“Overnight hours, when temperatures drop, we might see some snow showers at lower elevations, but I think during the day, with that higher angle sun we now have, any showers that do fall are more likely to come as rain,” Walter said.
The Weather Service expects scattered flurries and bands of moisture across the entire Western Slope on Wednesday night, Thursday and into Friday.
Rain or snow flurries will be more localized with perhaps a tenth of an inch to a few tenths of an inch accumulation in Durango as bands move through.
“Melting will occur rapidly. We expect highs in the low 40s on Thursday,” Walter said.
Friday evening and Saturday, Walter expects the region to see the bulk of the storm.
The storm is expected to favor central and northern Colorado, but Southwest Colorado should still see good snowfall.
“There’s a lot of hype about this storm on the Front Range, because they’re really favored with that upslope flow,” Walter said. “Unfortunately, we’re not under the strong lift, but we still should see decent moisture with the system.”
From Friday into early Sunday, Walter expects the San Juan Mountains should see anywhere from 6 to 10 inches of snowfall.
“I would take all the snowfall amounts later in the week with a grain of salt,” Walter said. “Right now, this is just kind of a first estimate. We should have a better picture later in the week. But right now, it looks like Friday and Saturday are our best chance to see a good amount of moisture.”
parmijo@durangoherald.com
