Weather forecasters were right last week when they said the unseasonably warm, dry autumn La Plata County was enjoying would be short-lived.

Above-average rainfall for the month of October brought more than an inch of precipitation to some parts of La Plata County in the past 24 hours as well as some snowfall in the high country.

Joe Ramey, meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Grand Junction, said Southwest Colorado is likely to finish the week under drizzly conditions.

During a 15-hour period, from 6 p.m. Sunday until 9 a.m. Monday, precipitation totals ranged from 0.24 inches near Ignacio to 1.2 inches at a few SNOTEL sites, which measure winter precipitation, near Stump Lake and Vallecito. The area north of Rockwood received 1.68 inches of precipitation, Ramey said.

A spotter in Silverton reported patches of snow at elevations below 11,000 feet, as well as near Weminuche Creek. Forecasters predict more in areas at and above 11,000 feet.

Latest storm

Based on readings from the automated system at the Durango-La Plata County Airport, Durango has received 1.68 inches of rainfall so far this month, almost exceeding its 1.84-inch average for the entire month of October. This is the wettest October on record for the city thus far since 1972, when 3.65 inches were recorded for the month.

There is no way to accurately gauge whether rain washing down the Animas River will disturb sediment settled along the banks from mine discharge upriver, said Peter Butler, water quality consultant and co-coordinator of the Animas River Stakeholders Group.

“It depends on how much it rains and if the river goes up, so I don’t know if you’ll see any changes at all,” he said. “You have no idea what level of rain will change or make a difference in the flow.”

Water data from the U.S. Geological Survey from Sunday and Monday show a water flow increase, in cubic feet per second, in the Animas River in Durango. Data reflected daily volume of 355 cubic feet per second on Oct. 19, peaking at more than 360 cubic feet per second before 7 a.m. Monday.

“Fall is our wettest season of the year, and we’ve generally had below-normal precipitation from September to early October,” Ramey said. “Now we’re trying to catch up. It’s looking like a wet and unsettled week really favoring the Four Corners area of Colorado.”

National Weather Service reported there will be large variations of rainfall for Southwest Colorado and the rest of the state through the end of October, but La Plata County can expect to finish the week with about another 2 inches of rainfall.

The National Weather Service issued a flash-flood watch for portions of Southwest Colorado and Utah through Monday evening, predicting widespread showers and thunderstorms continuing to move northeast.

El Niño pattern

Ramey added that the current west-to-east weather patterns indicates that El Niño has kicked in, bringing additional moisture to the Southwest because of the southern shift in the jet stream.

“The monsoons that bring up moisture from the tropical south have ended,” Ramey said. “These recent storms are coming from the west, which coincides with the El Niño signal.”

Current weather corresponds to the trend as well, said Jim Andrus, a Montezuma County weather watcher for the weather service.

October moisture is at 112 percent of normal for Cortez. And year-to-date moisture for the Cortez area is 137 percent of normal at 14.9 inches of precipitation.

According to the weather service, the 30-day precipitation outlook is above normal for Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico and Texas. The 90-day forecast is slated for normal to above-normal precipitation for those same areas.

Drought status

The U.S. drought outlook shows some improvement, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Relief is likely in central and Southern Californian by the end of January, but an end to the drought there is not expected.

“While it is good news that drought improvement is predicted for California, one season of above-average rain and snow is unlikely to remove four years of drought,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director for NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “California would need close to twice its normal rainfall to get out of drought and that’s unlikely.”

However, drought removal is possible across large parts of the Southwest. The NOAA drought prediction map released Oct. 15, shows Colorado breaking free of drought conditions for 2016.

Northwestern New Mexico and northeastern Arizona, are labeled “drought removal likely.”

Drought is expected to persist in the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies because of the El Niño weather pattern that shifts the Pacific jet stream south carrying storms with it.

Meteorologists predict the ongoing El Niño event will peak in late autumn and diminish in magnitude through the late winter and spring.

jpace@durangoherald.com. The Journal Staff Writer Jim Mimiaga contributed to this report.