In February, I recounted the extensive list of goals the City Council has met since I began my year as mayor last sp;ring. Some of that work is still in progress, but this month, I will take a longer view of the future of Durango and the larger community.
The most compelling information on this front comes from the Colorado State Demography Office. Between 2010 and 2012, local population growth accelerated to 2.1 percent, in spite of the recession. The forecast projects even more rapid growth in the coming generation, with La Plata County population nearly doubling to more than 100,000 by 2040. The projection does not specify municipal populations, but for Durango, the corresponding value surely exceeds 30,000.
One component of growth in the coming decade is the peak of the baby boom generation reaching retirement age. The “Silver Tsunami” is present in the statistics, with the over-65 population nearly tripling by 2040. The surprising discovery for me, however, is the largest part of the projected growth, about 1,000 per decade, comes in today’s 20s cohort, which implies significant migration of young workers into the county. Of course, many of them will have children, further increasing the population.
Where will all these folks live, work or shop? Where will their children to go school? Who will provide the medical and social services for them, especially the seniors? How will the city and county and other agencies maintain and expand utility and transportation infrastructure to serve them? What other needs might emerge, such as a central community arts and performance center?
The city has multiple efforts underway to prepare for the impacts of growth. The 2014 budget includes a rate study to estimate the needs of the Utilities Department to maintain our water and sewer systems, to build a second water-treatment plant and to increase long-term sewer capacity. The city staff and the Parks and Recreation Advisory Board have begun to consider optimal uses for possible renewal of the 1999 half-cent sales tax, which funded the Durango Community Recreation Center and the Animas River Trail, and is due to sunset in 2019. Durango-La Plata County Airport has received an evaluation of terminal needs – roughly double the present capacity, even to meet current use – and is developing a master plan that will refine concepts and cost estimates, as well as evaluate possible funding mechanisms. The city and county also are in the final stages of negotiating a new intergovernmental agreement to oversee development of properties in the immediate vicinity of Durango, land the city may annex in the foreseeable future.
These are prudent steps the city must take to prepare for the future. On the other hand, there are reasons to question the “business as usual” assumptions that necessarily underlie demographic projections. Can the landscape of La Plata County actually accommodate 100,000 residents? Given trends toward a warmer and more unstable climate and rising prices for energy and other resources, will the future validate the conventional assumptions of economic and population growth? Regardless, fiscal constraints at the federal and state levels imply municipalities and counties must become increasingly self-reliant – that is, sustainable.
I can cite three local trends that are building community sustainability: buy-local campaigns, the local-food movement and waste-reduction initiatives. Buying local increases the circulation of money entering the community, which supports more workers. Eating locally grown food yields better nutrition while maintaining local and regional agriculture. Minimizing waste results in less money leaving the community to buy replacement goods, generates more local jobs to maintain the things we buy and may create new businesses to repurpose materials in the recycling stream.
Sustainability is the major theme of Durango’s 2007 Comprehensive Plan, and one implementation step is for the city to develop a Sustainability Action Plan, in part so we can lead by example. Current efforts include purchase of 100 percent green power from La Plata Electric Association, internal energy efficiency improvements and waste reductions and city-wide single-stream recycling. City Council will review the plan in our April 8 study session.
As we seek to prepare for an uncertain future, City Council welcomes suggestions for other initiatives the city of Durango might take. Beyond that, I see a need for a wider dialogue around the resilience of the larger community. Such a conversation would include all our local governments, the business, nonprofit and faith communities as well as individual residents.
If you are interested in helping to initiate this conversation, please contact me.
Dick White is the mayor of Durango, a position rotating among members of the City Council. He was elected to the City Council in 2011 and will serve as mayor until April 15, when he will be succeeded by now-Mayor Pro Tem Sweetie Marbury. Reach him at DickWhite@ DurangoGov.org.
