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Weather favors rain through September

El Niño, monsoon combine to ease drought

The weather has turned in favor of more moisture for Southwest Colorado into September, continuing the drought-busting weather.

“It’s one of our better monsoons we have seen in awhile, and is producing deep moisture, often for three or four days in a row,” said meteorologist Chris Cuoco, of the National Weather Service.

The Southwest monsoon is a seasonal shift in wind flow from the tropical south that funnels moisture into New Mexico, Arizona, Colorado and southern Utah.

Each July, the Bermuda high-pressure system repositions over the Gulf of Mexico, causing winds to shift around it and producing the monsoon.

“You can see the plume of moisture on satellite, drawing moisture from the eastern Pacific, then delivering thunderstorms along western Mexico and into the western U.S.,” Cuoco said.

Also, El Niño, – characterized by warming of the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean – is in effect, which can also bring moisture to western Colorado.

Cuoco rates this El Niño as “strongly warmer,” with surface temperatures rising 3 degrees Celsius.

“It’s sizing up to compare with the strong El Niño in 1997 and 1998 that brought record moisture to the western U.S.,” he said.

El Niño doesn’t guarantee moisture for Southwest Colorado, but it can increase its chances.

“Because the El Niño is matching up with the monsoon, it signals higher than normal precipitation,” Cuoco said.

In 1998, a strong El Niño year, Cortez saw above-average precipitation, said Cortez weather observer Jim Andrus.

Unfortunately, there are no reports for Durango in 1998 because Durango didn’t report precipitation to the National Weather Service from February 1991 to November 1999, said meteorologist Dennis Phillips, from the Grand Junction office of the weather service.

But 2015 has been a good year for Durango, which officially measures precipitation and temperatures at the Durango-La Plata County Airport. May saw rainfall of 222 percent above average with 3.02 inches of rain, and June was 102 percent above average with 1.66 inches. July, as of Monday, had received 1.62 inches of rain, or 80 percent of the monthly average, with 12 days to go.

The National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration also forecasts the Four Corners will be wetter than average from July through September. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, Southwest Colorado went from severe to moderate drought in April to the current no-drought status, based on total precipitation for 2015.

Durango Herald Staff Writer Ann Butler contributed to this report.



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