Hoping for a white Christmas in Durango? It’s going to be a close call.
The National Weather Service in Grand Junction is tracking a storm system that could hit Southwest Colorado on Christmas Day, but timing is going to be key on this one, said Megan Stackhouse, a meteorologist.
For holiday travelers around Southwest Colorado, Stackhouse said the roads and high mountain passes should be clear and good to go in the days leading up to Christmas on Tuesday.
But forecasting models show that early next week, a low-pressure system on the West Coast will be moving inland, increasing the chance for precipitation in parts of Colorado and Utah.
The problem, Stackhouse said, is that one model shows the storm taking a northerly track, which would hit central and northern Colorado and eastern Utah, cheating Southwest Colorado’s chances for snow. The other model has the storm headed right for the San Juan Mountains around Durango.
“There’s definitely some major differences in the models right now,” Stackhouse said.
If the storm system takes a turn for the Southwest, it’s looking like snow will start Christmas Day during the mid- to-late afternoon, with the meat of the storm really kicking in Wednesday.
“Of course, it could slow down or speed up,” Stackhouse said. “So anyone traveling around Christmas really needs to be on the lookout.”
As usual, the high country and the towns of Silverton, Ouray, Rico and Telluride have a far better chance for snowfall and a white Christmas.
After Christmas, Stackhouse said an active weather system will continue to increase the chance for snow in the region.
It’s a promising sign for Southwest Colorado, which, after a teasing start to winter with some early season snowfall, has shown no signs of reversing its bewildering drought conditions.
According to the Natural Resource Conservation Service, the Animas, Dolores, San Juan and San Miguel basins are at 59 percent of historical normal snowpack levels, based on weather stations in the high country.
The state as a whole is at 94 percent.
Since Dec. 1, a weather station at Durango-La Plata County Airport, which sits at an elevation of about 6,685 feet, has recorded just 0.10 of an inch of precipitation, well short of the historical average of 0.65 of an inch.
In 2017, as the drought in Southwest Colorado started in earnest, the weather station at the airport recorded no amount of precipitation in December.
As a result, the U.S. Drought Monitor has listed the Four Corners in its most extreme category of drought for almost a year. As of Dec. 20, the region still held that listing.
Jeff Givens, a self-taught weather observer in Durango with a Facebook following nearing 7,000 people, said it’s too soon to give up hope.
Sifting through data compiled by the Western Regional Climate Center, Givens found that from the 1900-01 winter season to the 2009-10 winter season, there were 13 years with fewer than 6 inches of snowfall in December.
In nine of these 13 years, less than an inch of snow was recorded in the month of December.
“This doesn’t make it better right now, but things can change ...” Givens wrote on his blog. “Keep your chins up people, it is early yet!”
Southwest Colorado is already off to a better start to this year, Givens said.
A weather station on top of Molas Pass had recorded 22 inches of snow depth as of Friday. On Red Mountain Pass, a weather station recorded a depth of 32 inches of snow.
jromeo@durangoherald.com
Travel information
The Colorado Department of Transportation reminds motorists to check for updated weather information:
Visit
for real-time road conditions, highway closures, average speeds, photos, live cameras streaming traffic, trucking information and more.
Call 511 to listen to recorded information about road conditions, projected trip travel times and trucker information.
Receive free email/text alerts at
; choose from a list of subscription options at the “get connected” tab.
Follow @coloradodot on Twitter for traveler information and other news.
Like CDOT at
to receive news and traveler information.
Visit
www.codot.gov/travel/winter-driving
to get information about road conditions, what to keep in a vehicle during the winter, how to safely pass a snowplow, commercial-vehicle requirements, seasonal closures, snow removal and avalanche control.
Herald Staff
