The forecast for Southwest Colorado includes chances for rain and more rain at least through Wednesday, according to the National Weather Service.
“Monday morning’s storm came from the southwest and was kind of mixed up with moisture from Hurricane Linda from the west,” said Jim Pringle, a meteorologist with the Grand Junction office of the weather service, on Monday afternoon. “The storms will be focused in the Durango metropolitan area through Monday night, and then they’re likely to be more north in La Plata County.”
Early risers Tuesday may see some white on the highest peaks, as the snow level for this storm is at 11,000 feet.
“But it will be just a little bit really high up,” he said. “And the ground has been so warm, it will mostly melt.”
As has been the case through much of the summer, there will be periodic showers and thunderstorms through mid-week, with a 40 percent chance of showers before noon Tuesday, dropping to 20 percent through the rest of Tuesday and down to 10 percent Wednesday.
“I’m glad I’m not a person who needs to cut hay this week because all it takes is one storm going overhead to ruin a cutting,” Pringle said.
The rest of the week will start to dry out, Pringle said, and the weekend should be pretty clear.
Temperatures are predicted to remain on the cool side, with highs ranging from 69 to 71 degrees until it starts warming into the mid-70s Friday.
“Tuesday will start bringing up subtropical moisture again,” he said.
Does El Niño still look strong?
“I’d say we’re already into a strong El Niño episode right now,” Pringle said. “The probabilities are high for it to remain in full strength through the winter into the spring.”
That means above-average precipitation throughout Colorado for the fall, he said, and then above-average for the southern two-thirds of Colorado through the winter. Southwest Colorado may also see below-average temperatures for the winter, although that doesn’t necessarily mean arctic lows.
The above-average precipitation that began in May has led to two aspen leaf pathogens around Colorado. Ryan Cox, the forester with the Durango District of the Colorado State Forest, said both have been seen extensively in Southwest Colorado.
Marssonina leaf blight presents as yellow spots on aspen leaves, and a fungus called ink spot (ciborina whetzelii), which looks like what its name describes, both occur on the lower sections of trees, he said. Both cause the affected leaves to turn brown and drop off prematurely.
Will this affect fall colors?
“It shouldn’t have too much impact,” Cox said. “It seems to be very spotty, and it doesn’t affect every leaf on a tree. We’re not going to have a leafless fall.”
Homeowners whose aspens are affected by one or both of the pathogens should rake their yards to reduce the risk for ink spot and marssonina if similar wet conditions occur next year, he said.
While Cox saw fall colors starting to occur on Red Mountain over the weekend, the San Juan National Forest will not start publishing its color forecast on its website until later this week, said spokeswoman Ann Bond.
abutler@durangoherald.com
