WASHINGTON – Call it the $75 million question.
It’s the most important question every Republican who wants to run for president needs to answer — and the one that will divide the massive field between those who can win and the rest.
The $75 million refers to the threshold amount of money a top-tier candidate will need to win the nomination. That number is based on what Mitt Romney raised and spent to win the nomination in 2012 ($76.6 million) and numerous conversations I have had with Republican fundraisers and donors in recent months. And, in truth, it might be a little low.
“It depends on the final March 1st composition (of the field), but cash-on-hand at $30 million in December/January is a reasonable number to think someone has a viable campaign and can withstand some setbacks,” said Ed Rogers, a longtime Republican lobbyist.
So, the first question that needs to be asked of the more than 20 candidates weighing bids for 2016 is: How are you going to raise $75 million?
Three nearly certain candidates for the GOP nod can make a convincing case that they could reach that number: Jeb Bush, Scott Walker and Rand Paul.
Bush is the no-brainer of the group. He is the son and brother of presidents and is expected to make a fundraising showing at the end of this month aimed at thinning the race’s herd considerably. His biggest edge over the rest of the field – from the second he announces until he either becomes the nominee or drops out – will be his cash-collecting prowess. Bush’s financial ceiling is much, much higher than $75 million; by way of comparison, remember that Hillary Rodham Clinton raised more than $223 million for her 2008 campaign.
Walker, the governor of Wisconsin, has two things going for him when it comes to reaching that $75 million goal: 1) He has a national network from Democratic attempts to recall him earlier this decade, and 2) he is the hot candidate at the moment.
On the first point, Walker has run three races in the past four years – his 2010 election, the 2011 recall and his 2014 re-election – and has raised $83 million combined for those contests. But that doesn’t tell the whole story. Of the 300,000 people who have given to Walker’s campaigns, three out of every four donated $75 or less, according to The Washington Post’s Matea Gold. That means Walker has a national small-dollar network that can be tapped again and again if he runs for president.
On point two: Donors – especially major donors – like to give to candidates who look like winners. Polling nationally and in key states such as Iowa suggest that Walker is the candidate with the momentum right now – a key time to be peaking because so many of the major cash bundlers are making their candidate decisions now. (New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie has the opposite problem, but more on that below.)
Then there is Paul, a senator from Kentucky whose father, Ron, made three runs for president – including two as a Republican in 2008 and 2012.
Ron Paul is a good place to start; he raised $76 million for those last two campaigns – $41 million in 2012. That was for a candidate and a campaign that almost no one – including many of the people who donated – thought could win. And it was done, in large part, on the Internet – a low-overhead form of fundraising.
Fast forward to Rand Paul, who has the backing of his father’s small-dollar Internet donating army without raising a finger. Add to that $40 (or so) million, Rand Paul’s aggressive courtship of major mainstream donors that would have never even considered his father and you begin to see his credible path to $75 million.
Outside those three, the two next obvious candidates who might be able to get to the $75 million mark are Christie and Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida.
Christie’s great advantage – aside from his charisma and quick-wittedness – in the 2016 race was supposed to be his deep relationships with the New York and New Jersey money men and women who would finance his campaign. Two things have complicated that plan: Bush’s expected candidacy has stolen away many of those people, and Christie’s polling and political struggles have made donors wary of throwing their lot in with him.
Rubio, who raised almost $22 million in his 2010 Senate victory, must prove that he can collect tens of millions even with Bush in the race and soaking up major cash from the duo’s home state of Florida.
Once you get beyond those five candidates, the prospects for a path to $75 million drop significantly.
Money isn’t determinative in picking Republican presidential nominees. If it was, then-Sen. Phil Gramm of Texas would have been the party’s 1996 nominee and Romney would have been the standard-bearer in 2008.
But, as a general rule, fundraising prowess is seen as a proxy for viability. And, in a field this large proving viability will be harder than ever before.
