It is hard to remember after 14 years, but the United States invaded Afghanistan only in response to the Sept. 11 attacks. The idea was to kill or capture Osama bin Laden, take out his base, destroy or degrade al-Qaida and at least lessen the threat it posed to this country. Nobody said anything about transforming Afghanistan into a liberal democracy or making it a safe, stable country.
All the more perplexing then that President Obama has decided not to draw down American troop numbers further. Instead he will maintain the current force of 9,800 troops through the end of his presidency.
It is hard to see this reversal as anything other than kicking the can down the road. The plan had been to cut the number of U.S. troops in Afghanistan in half by the end of this year and further reduce their number to a small number – essentially an embassy operation – by the end of 2016. Now though, Obama will do what George W. Bush did to him and leave this mess to his successor.
In a statement last week, announcing his change of heart, Obama said he still opposes the idea of “endless war.” But what adjective should be applied to a war that, at least for now, no one has any plans to conclude?
The president of course couched his decision is terms of loyalty and national security.
“While America’s combat mission in Afghanistan may be over,” he said, “our commitment to Afghanistan and its people endures. I will not allow Afghanistan to be used as safe haven for terrorists to attack our nation again.”
Fair enough. But what president could or would say otherwise?
What is missing from that, however, is any sense of what that means. Will American troops be there until Afghanistan is a calm, peaceful country? Is the idea to play Whack-a-mole with the Taliban and al-Qaida until they lose interest or grow old? If Afghanistan is too unstable or dangerous for the United States to leave now, what will it look like when it is sufficiently squared away for American forces to leave? And how do we plan to get there?
The fear is that questions like those are unanswered for the simple reason that nobody has the answers. Having invaded Afghanistan for legitimate reasons, perhaps even out of necessity, to some extent the United States has taken responsibility for it, but that does convey an understanding of the best way forward. Just because Obama and his advisors – and his Republican opposition, for that matter – all honestly want things to turn out well for Afghanistan and its people, does not mean they know how to make that happen.
At some point the country needs to consider that and what it means. The U.S. war in Afghanistan began in October of 2001. It is now certain to continue at least until early 2017 when it will become the next president’s problem.
What then? How long is too long? When is enough, enough? Absent some miraculous turnaround in Afghanistan, the only thing to talk about is an exit. But if, after 14 years of war – half on his watch – President Obama cannot answer those questions, who will?
