One thing is very clear about the attack a week ago by large U.S. bombers on the three Iranian nuclear processing sites: that one-third of the way around the world, from Missouri to Iran and return, flight and targeting apparently came off successfully even if it wasn’t the superlatives the president has to have. Iran long had a reputation for developing a nuclear threat and the U.S. had prepared for such an eventuality, including having the extra large-sized ordnance that would be necessary and the planning to deliver it.
The reach of the U.S. military has shown to be long.
What isn’t so certain is what happens next.
Iran has shown that its capacity to defend itself with conventional weapons is limited to nonexistent. Israel, in what it’s calling the Twelve Day War, gained control of the airspace over most of Iran and eliminated some of its political leadership and nuclear scientists, making it much less threatening for the U.S. bombers that arrived in the middle of the night about a week later.
Seeing how easily conventional weapons were neutralized, of course Iran will recover its ability to develop nuclear weapons and likely at a faster pace than previously. It may say “sure” to any initiative by the Trump administration to shape a no-nuclear agreement, but at the same time it will be reconstructing its underground facilities. At the same time, Iran is certain to appreciate that Donald Trump doesn’t recognize “agreements” when it doesn’t suit, having seen him cancel its broad nuclear agreement that came in the Obama administration and the “yes” and “no” and “yes” that are embedded in Trump’s tariff shifts.
What Americans should not want to happen is to have the U.S. become the military force that polices Iran’s nuclear future. Leave that up to Israel with its intelligence gathering skills, and to other countries in the region that don’t want an armed Iran.
The region can breathe more easily for a while as a result of the Israeli and U.S. air attacks, but only for a while.
