FREDERICKSBURG, Va. (AP) — Virginia Democrat Nicole Cole and her team spent much of their 2025 campaign for the state legislature standing in places like Weis Markets in Spotsylvania County, railing against prices that she said were too high: at least $3.79 for a dozen eggs, up to $7.99 for a pound of ground beef, $9.39 for coffee beans.
Her effort paid off when she ousted a 36-year Republican from his state House seat. She was one of 13 Virginia Democrats to flip competitive House seats and contribute to big election wins in her state and New Jersey, the only ones with governor's races this year.
“We would greet them at the point of purchase,” Cole said. “That’s when it hurts most.”
The cost of living also may have led voters to signal that this is President Donald Trump’s economy now. Some prices have stabilized or even declined, and costs tend to be higher in New Jersey than Virginia. But economic concerns, which helped Trump return to power in 2024, appeared to weigh Republicans down in the two contests for governor in the first major election after they took control of the White House and Congress, according to the AP Voter Poll.
Democrats Abigail Spanberger and Mikie Sherrill, who won those races in Virginia and New Jersey, respectively, campaigned hard on economic issues and led a sweep for their party in both states.
The swings were especially dramatic in suburban and exurban areas like Spotsylvania and Morris County, New Jersey. Morris County is part of a traditionally Republican state legislative district where liberal Democrat Marisa Sweeney and one of two incumbent Republicans are so close in the vote count that The Associated Press considers the race, which will have two winners, too close to call.
“You go into the grocery store, you see what things cost, and it’s just not working,” Sweeney said.
Paying the bills
Over the past decade, places like Morris and Spotsylvania counties have become increasingly competitive — communities just beyond major metro areas where midterms are often won or lost. Morris County is about 30 miles west of New York City; Spotsylvania County is just south of Fredericksburg. Each is about two-thirds white, slightly wealthier than the national average, and at or above it in the share of residents with bachelor’s degrees.
Heading into 2025, both looked like they would be close. Cole’s district includes part of the Republican-leaning county, which Trump carried in 2020 and 2024, and GOP Gov. Glenn Youngkin won it by more than 20 percentage points in between.
Still, Cole remained persuaded that she could flip her district, which includes part of Spotsylvania and Caroline counties.
“Early on in my campaign, when I brought in my staff, one of the main messages I talked to them about was that we need to stop saying this district is red, and that it leans red,” Cole said, adding: “We had to give some encouragement that this is possible to the people who aren’t red.”
Cole, who was elected to the Spotsylvania County School Board in 2021, developed a playbook focused on the cost of living and education. Two weeks before the Nov. 4 election, she spoke at a town hall in Fredericksburg about tackling high energy bills from electric utilities.
“You know you have to have heat and air, and a utility bill that has to get paid,” she said. “So then something else is a sacrifice. The quality of food that you’re able to buy for your kids is a sacrifice.”
As she greeted voters in November after the election, most people were tired of talking politics. But one voter, Kaitlyn Sapp, seemed interested in learning what Democrats would do for her.
“I did not vote this year,” Sapp said. “I have not been very political. But recently, I have been trying to learn more.”
Cole smiled, not wasting a second before rattling off the issues her party aimed to tackle next year: health care costs, public education, utility bills and so on.
Prices to pay
Morris County also swung dramatically to Democrats.
It was one of just four New Jersey counties to back both Democrat Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential race and Republican Jack Ciattarelli in the governor's race the next year. Biden won Morris County by 4 percentage points, and Ciattarelli carried it by more than 11 percentage points. That 15.5 percentage point swing was the sixth-largest among the state’s 21 counties. By 2024, Trump narrowly flipped Morris County, winning it by just under 3 percentage points.
This time around, Sherrill edged Ciattarelli there.
Sherrill's victory is not all that surprising, and she is no stranger to the county. The governor-elect represented it while serving in Congress, and had a track record of working with state Republicans in the county.
“She has a lot of crossover appeal with Republican voters,” said Darcy Draeger, chairwoman of the Morris County Democrats.
Voters seemed to pay attention to how the president's policies were affecting them, said Sweeney, whose district includes part of the county.
“People are watching the news and they’re looking to see what goes on in Trump’s administration, and they are seeing how it affects people locally, and with the whole government shutdown and people losing their SNAP benefits,” Sweeney said. “We’re talking about people within our own communities.”
It’s an outlook shared by some conservatives. The all-encompassing effect of Trump’s second administration and his clash with congressional Democrats cost the party in New Jersey, Republicans said.
“We need to make sure that our constituents understand that we are here to serve and that we’re listening to their voices,” said Republican state Sen. Anthony Bucco of Morris County. “I think the message was drowned out a little bit by Washington.”
Passaic, a northern New Jersey county not far from New York, is another area that shows a shift back to Democrats. The county, which has heavily Latino areas, went for Trump in 2024, the first time it went for a Republican in decades. This year, it swung back to Democrats by double digits.
John Currie, the longtime Democratic chairman in Passaic, chalked up the swing back to his party there to “hard work” by those running, along with a message about lowering costs. And by not talking about costs enough, Currie said Republicans paid the ultimate price.
“Affordability – it’s that simple.”
