Washington Post movie critics Ann Hornaday, Michael O’Sullivan and Stephanie Merry picked the movies they think will win, should win and should have been nominated:
BEST PICTURE
Nominees: “The Big Short”; “Bridge of Spies”; “Brooklyn”; “Mad Max: Fury Road”; “The Martian”; “The Revenant”; “Room”; “Spotlight”
Will win: Ann Hornaday: “Spotlight”; Michael O’Sullivan: “Spotlight”; Stephanie Merry: “The Revenant”
Should win: A.H.: “Spotlight”; M.O.: “The Big Short”; S.M.: “Spotlight”
Should have been nominated: A.H.: “Carol”; M.O.: “Love and Mercy”; S.M.: “Inside Out”
The Academy can nominate up to 10 films, and this year, it went with eight, including more popular entries, such as “The Martian” and “Mad Max: Fury Road.” Experts see this as a three-way race among “Spotlight,” “The Big Short” and “The Revenant.”
BEST DIRECTOR
Nominees: Lenny Abrahamson, “Room”; Alejandro Iñárritu, “The Revenant”; Tom McCarthy, “Spotlight”; Adam McKay, “The Big Short”; George Miller, “Mad Max: Fury Road”
Will win: A.H.: George Miller, “Mad Max: Fury Road”; M.O.: Alejandro G. Iñárritu, “The Revenant”; S.M.: Alejandro G. Iñárritu, “The Revenant”
Should win: A.H.: Tom McCarthy, “Spotlight”; M.O.: Alejandro G. Iñárritu, “The Revenant”; S.M.: Tom McCarthy, “Spotlight”
Should have been nominated: A.H.: Todd Haynes, “Carol”; M.O.: Justin Kurzel, “Macbeth”; S.M.: Sean Baker, “Tangerine”
These directors run the gamut, from the extreme sport of an Iñárritu film to the more understated approach of McCarthy on “Spotlight.” The most surprising omission is Ridley Scott, director of “The Martian.”
BEST ACTRESS
Nominees: Cate Blanchett, “Carol”; Brie Larson, “Room”; Jennifer Lawrence, “Joy”; Charlotte Rampling, “45 Years”; Saoirse Ronan, “Brooklyn”
Will win: A.H.: Brie Larson, “Room”; M.O.: Brie Larson, “Room”; S.M.: Brie Larson, “Room”
Should win: A.H.: Saoirse Ronan, “Brooklyn”; M.O.: Saoirse Ronan, “Brooklyn”; S.M.: Saoirse Ronan, “Brooklyn”
Should have been nominated: A.H.: Teyonah Parris, “Chi-Raq”; M.O.: Bel Powley, “The Diary of a Teenage Girl”; S.M.: Sarah Silverman, “I Smile Back”
The nominees were mostly predictable.
BEST ACTOR
Nominees: Bryan Cranston, “Trumbo”; Matt Damon, “The Martian”; Leonardo DiCaprio, “The Revenant”; Michael Fassbender, “Steve Jobs”; Eddie Redmayne, “The Danish Girl”
Will win: A.H.: Leonardo DiCaprio, “The Revenant”; M.O.: Leonardo DiCaprio, “The Revenant”; S.M.: Leonardo DiCaprio, “The Revenant”
Should win: A.H.: Matt Damon, “The Martian”; M.O.: Leonardo DiCaprio, “The Revenant”; S.M.: Leonardo DiCaprio, “The Revenant”
Should have been nominated: A.H.: Paul Dano, “Love and Mercy”; M.O.: Abraham Attah, “Beasts of No Nation”; S.M.: Michael B. Jordan, “Creed”
The only name on this list that really matters is Leonardo DiCaprio. Barring some unthinkable fraud, he has this category locked down.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Nominees: Jennifer Jason Leigh, “The Hateful Eight”; Rooney Mara, “Carol”; Rachel McAdams, “Spotlight”; Alicia Vikander, “The Danish Girl”; Kate Winslet, “Steve Jobs”
Will win: A.H.: Alicia Vikander, “The Danish Girl”; M.O.: Alicia Vikander, “The Danish Girl”; S.M.: Alicia Vikander, “The Danish Girl”
Should win: A.H.: Alicia Vikander, “The Danish Girl”; M.O.: Rooney Mara, “Carol”; S.M.: Alicia Vikander, “The Danish Girl”
Should have been nominated: A.H.: Tessa Thompson, “Creed”; M.O.: Mya Taylor, “Tangerine”; S.M.: Charlize Theron, “Mad Max: Fury Road”
Vikander burst onto the scene this year with a handful of much-discussed performances in buzzy movies. It wasn’t clear whether she would land on the list for “Ex Machina” or “The Danish Girl,” as the latter role could have been seen as a leading performance. She’s the favorite, while Winslet, who won the Golden Globe, is the potential upset.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Nominees: Christian Bale, “The Big Short”; Tom Hardy, “The Revenant”; Mark Ruffalo, “Spotlight”; Mark Rylance, “Bridge of Spies”; Sylvester Stallone, “Creed”
Will win: A.H.: Sylvester Stallone, “Creed”; M.O.: Sylvester Stallone, “Creed”; S.M.: Sylvester Stallone, “Creed”
Should win: A.H.: Mark Rylance, “Bridge of Spies”; M.O.: Mark Ruffalo, “Spotlight”; S.M.: Mark Rylance, “Bridge of Spies”
Should have been nominated: A.H.: Idris Elba, “Beasts of No Nation”; M.O.: Sam Elliott, “Grandma”; S.M.: Benicio del Toro, “Sicario”
Stallone, a Globe winner, is the overwhelming favorite for his emotional return to the character of Rocky Balboa, while Rylance and Bale would be the potential spoilers. The biggest surprise of the lot is Tom Hardy, who took the place of some other strong candidates, including Elba, and Michael Shannon for “99 Homes.”
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Nominees: “Bridge of Spies”; “Ex Machina”; “Inside Out”; “Spotlight”; “Straight Outta Compton”
Will win: A.H.: “Spotlight”; M.O.: “Spotlight”; S.M.: “Spotlight”
Should win: A.H.: “Spotlight”; M.O.: “Ex Machina”; S.M.: “Spotlight”
Should have been nominated: A.H.: “Love and Mercy”; M.O.: “While We’re Young”; S.M.: “Clouds of Sils Maria”
This is an eclectic category, with the animated “Inside Out” alongside the science fiction of “Ex Machina” and the true story of “Spotlight,” which won the Writers Guild Award. It’s also the only nomination for the N.W.A biopic “Straight Outta Compton.”
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Nominees: “The Big Short”; “Brooklyn”; “Carol”; “The Martian”; “Room”
Will win: A.H.: “The Big Short”; M.O.: “Brooklyn”; S.M.: “The Big Short”
Should win: A.H.: “Room”; M.O.: “The Big Short”; S.M.: “The Martian”
Should have been nominated: A.H.: “Steve Jobs”; M.O.: “The Diary of a Teenage Girl”; S.M.: “The Diary of a Teenage Girl”
Aaron Sorkin took home the Golden Globe for “Steve Jobs,” but the Academy didn’t dig his “impressionistic” take on the Apple founder’s life. Instead, the favorites are Charles Randolph and Adam McKay, who won a Writers Guild Award for their script, which used a bathing Margot Robbie to explain the financial crisis in “The Big Short,” an adaptation of Michael Lewis’s book.
