On a hot June afternoon Monday, Diane Bock says sitting next to the Animas River reading a book in the shade is the next best thing to being in the river to cool off.
JERRY McBRIDE/Durango Herald
The National Weather Service analyzed our weather through June 21 and derived these statistics We were 0.1 degree warmer and received 0.35 inches of precipitation than normal.
Courtesy of the National Weather Service
Meteorologists analyzed average annual precipitation by month for three different climates in Colorado, including Cortez in Southwest Colorado. June is the driest month, with precipitation surging during the monsoon season in July, August and September.
Courtesy of the National Weather Service
On this repeat of the average annual precipitation by month in areas around the state, the time when the monsoons generally arrive is circled. Forecasters this year are predicting a wetter monsoon season, which will be a welcome relief in an area that’s been suffering drought.
Courtesy of the National Weather Service
For the last two months, the area in the square has been warming, which is the traditional beginning of the weather pattern called El Niño. Southwest Colorado generally receives more precipitation during El Niño years.
Courtesy of the National Weather Service
In this graph, virtually every indicator is saying we’re moving into an El Niño weather pattern.
Courtesy of the National Weather Service
More indicators that an El Niño pattern is in store for Southwest Colorado.
Courtesy of the National Weather Service
Forecasts for the month of July indicate it will be wetter than normal for Southwest Colorado, as seen on the map at right, but meteorologists don’t have enough information to predict what temperatures will be in our area, as seen in the left map.
Courtesy of the National Weather Service
While weather systems July through September are pretty far out, meteorologists are predicting a wetter monsoon season and the beginnings of an El Niño weather pattern for us as seen, right, but they don’t have enough indicators of what the temperature will do, as seen, left.
Courtesy of the National Weather Service
The red line indicates average precipitation during the last 15 El Niños as compared to average.
Courtesy of the National Weather Service
Our area has experienced four El Niños in the last 15 years. This chart examines what has occurred in each of them based on whether they were weak, moderate or strong.
Courtesy of the National Weather Service
While it may not be news to locals, it’s a confirmation of what we already knew: June has been slightly warmer than average, and less rain fell than normal.
The National Weather Service issued its analysis of June’s weather to date Sunday.
The weather service, whose official measuring site for Durango is at the Durango-La Plata County Airport, said the average temperature in June was 0.1 percent warmer than normal. And we only received a trace of precipitation in June, which tends to be the driest month of the year anyway. We received 0.35 inches of rain less than normal.
“Hot and dry will continue into July until the monsoons come,” said meteorologist Joe Ramey with the Grand Junction Office of the weather service. “We would expect above-normal temperatures for the rest of the month at least.”
The forecast is currently for highs in the high 80s and low 90s into next week.
The good news is that the El Niño weather pattern continues to form.
“The water temperatures began to warm in May and continued to warm in June,” Ramey said about the key area in the Pacific Ocean where the El Niño Southern Oscillation usually begins. An El Niño weather pattern generally means increased precipitation for Southwest Colorado. “Whether it’s weak, moderate or strong is much less certain for El Niño, but we’re going with moderate for now,” he said.
While El Niño may not arrive until the fall, the monsoon season, which generally starts toward the end of the first week of July, can’t get here too soon for farmers and ranchers. Ramey said the monsoon season is forecasted to be wetter than normal, good news for Southwest Colorado, which has been in a moderate drought for several years.
How hot will it be here in July and August? The weather service isn’t willing to make that forecast because it just doesn’t have enough information for the long-range prognosis.
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