TALLADEGA, Ala. – The debut of knockout qualifying at Talladega Superspeedway promises to be among the most action-packed (and perhaps crash-marred) high-speed scrambles of the Sprint Cup season.
There will be myriad strategies employed Saturday (charge to the front with a small squadron of wingmen? Lay back and wait to be swallowed by the pack?), but Kevin Harvick might have the safest – and sanest – approach for the one-hour session that will determine the pole-sitter for the Aaron’s 499.
“I thought about just going home and starting in the back,” Harvick said with a laugh. “It’s going to be exciting, to say the least. There is only one way to get a good lap, and that is to catch the pack and have four or five cars lined up behind you.”
That figures to be a daunting prospect at Talladega, which is the longest and widest oval in NASCAR but also among the most treacherous because its ultrasmooth surface perpetuates the illusion of countless options for navigating the finicky draft. Because of horsepower-robbing plates that choke airflow to the engine and prevent “takeoff” speeds well above 200 mph, the track tends to produce tight packs of cars three wide and several rows deep, and massive pileups often are triggered by antsy drivers trying to force their way through lanes that disappear quickly.
Registering a fast qualifying lap will be tricky with the cars closely bunched, as evidenced by Nationwide Series qualifying at Daytona International Speedway, a sister restrictor-plate track. Though the time trails were cut short to 25 minutes by rain, it was a fierce display of 200-mph pack racing that produced a crash and many disquieting moments.
“A lot of guys paid attention in Daytona to what the Nationwide cars did, and it’s possible to get a good lap,” six-time series champion Jimmie Johnson said. “It just depends on who you are trying to team up with, who’s trying to work together, and how far somebody is laying back.
“It’s just going to be out of control, in a good way. There could be some wrecks, because there’s going to be a lot of cars out there.”
Last May at Talladega also offered a vague preview of group qualifying when the starting order was set by speeds turned during a wild practice Friday. With a forecast virtually guaranteeing a washout of Saturday qualifying, the Friday session devolved into pandemonium as drivers tried to post fast laps in anticipation of winning a lineup spot.
Pole-sitter Carl Edwards likened the practice to “de-facto heat races” and is expecting a similar scenario Saturday at the 2.66-mile oval, which had been known as the season’s most mundane qualifying session under the previous single-car format (which was mothballed in Sprint Cup after the Daytona 500).
“If I weren’t in it, I would be tuned in to watch, because it will be entertainment,” Edwards said. “Last year, everyone was trying to post the fastest time, and it was insanity. We ended up on the pole, but we almost wrecked the race car. I have a feeling that it might be more dangerous than the race from a tearing-the-race-cars-up standpoint.”
Joe Gibbs Racing veteran Matt Kenseth is predicting the session will be “crazy, unorganized and chaotic. Everybody is going to have different plans, and everybody is going to want to be the guy catching the pack, but everybody can’t be the guy catching the pack, because then there would be no pack to catch. It will be interesting, and I think we’ll try to come up with some kind of plan.”
Said Jeff Gordon, a six-time winner at Talladega: “This has the potential to be one of the most exciting (qualifying) sessions of the season. It’s definitely going to be a learning experience. You can talk about a plan ahead of time, but that plan may completely change when the session starts.”
It’s worth pondering whether a derivation of Harvick’s lighthearted approach might be a sound play. Starting position isn’t considered critical at Talladega, where it’s easy to reach the front with a good car and a few drafting partners. Many have chosen to sandbag during the 500-mile race before sprinting to the finish. A winner hasn’t come from the pole in seven years, and six of the last 13 victors have started outside the top 10.
“It’s going to be more of an exhibition than anything,” JGR’s Denny Hamlin said of knockout qualifying at Talladega. “Trust me, you’re not going to sleep uneasy the night before the race because you’re starting 25th; that can change within Lap 1. I think it’s more going to be a show for the fans. I think you’ll see a lot of pack-drafting with teammates and manufacturers. As far as importance for the race, there’s really none.”
There is some significance to getting a victory, though, and Hamlin is among the winless stars still seeking a provisional Chase for the Sprint Cup berth. Gordon, Johnson, Matt Kenseth and Tony Stewart all are former Talladega winners who haven’t visited victory lane in 2014 (it’s been 20 years since the last time the roster of winners through nine races didn’t include one of those series champions).
Stewart said a big-picture approach Saturday will be the key to excelling Sunday.
“I just want to take care of my Chevy,” said the driver-owner, who only has one top 10 at Talladega in nine races since his lone win there in 2008. “It won’t do you any good if you qualify on the pole but end up getting wrecked in qualifying. It’s going to be controlled chaos. It’s more important to make sure we’ve got a good (car) for the race than qualifying.”
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