The new year ought to bring with it new hope and optimism for the time to come. But it’s hard to feel positive after a 2014 marked by so much conflict and tragedy. Scanning the globe, here are WorldViews’ gloomy predictions for how things may get worse in 2015.
Syria’s civil war and Iraq’s spiraling violence: Yes, the extremist militants of the Islamic State are on the back foot, pinned down by a U.S.-led bombing campaign and increasingly undermined by their own incompetence. But the jihadist organization that rose so dramatically last year won’t fade as quickly, and eradicating it will require not just a concerted military campaign but a larger vision for how to address the crises in Iraq and Syria.
Russia’s economic crisis: Slumping oil prices hit Russia hard toward the end of 2014, cratering its currency and piling pressure on the country’s demagogic President Vladimir Putin. Russian banks and companies owe some $600 billion to the outside world, and Moscow’s spending a good chunk of its reserves bailing out leading financial institutions. A thaw with the West (and an easing of sanctions) would soften Putin’s plight, but there’s little sign of rapprochement right now. And pain on the domestic front may lead to more bellicose chest-thumping abroad.
The Israeli-Palestinian peace process: Thwarted this week at the U.N. Security Council, Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas now is pushing for recognition of Palestine’s statehood status at the International Criminal Court, which then could lead theoretically to the prosecution of senior Israeli officials on alleged war crimes. That could kill off the faint hope for a revival of talks between Israel and Abbas’s Palestinian Authority, although many would argue the prospect of a two-state solution long was dead.
The project of the European Union: In 2015, a host of major European countries will go to the polls, including Britain, Spain and crisis-hit Portugal. Beginning with a snap election in Greece this month, euro-skeptic and anti-austerity parties are expected to make considerable gains – and may dial back progress toward further European integration.
Post-war Afghanistan: The United States announced the formal conclusion of its war effort in Afghanistan at the end of December. But Washington leaves behind a weak government in Kabul, still vulnerable to the Afghan Taliban, whose appetite for battle and destruction did not slacken despite 13 years of American occupation.
Sri Lanka’s election: The island nation’s presidential election, scheduled for Jan. 8, was expected to be a formality for sitting President Mahinda Rajapaksa. But surprising defections from his camp in recent months means the race will be one of the closest Rajapaksa ever has fought. Given critics’ fears of the president’s authoritarian tendencies, don’t discount the prospect of street violence, voting irregularities and darker dealings in the days ahead.
The crises in Libya and Yemen: In the shadow of a coup in Egypt and the disastrous conflict in Iraq and Syria, democratic transitions in Libya and Yemen unraveled horribly in 2014.
Hawkish American and Iranian rhetoric: There is no question that both President Barack Obama and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani want to arrive at an agreement on Iran’s controversial nuclear program before a July deadline for negotiations to succeed. But hardliners and hawks in both Tehran and Washington will do their best to scuttle the move toward rapprochement. A deal with Iran would be another diplomatic feather in Obama’s cap after his dramatic opening with Cuba in December, but still it looks only a distant possibility.
Ebola in West Africa: Global health authorities struggled to combat the deadly Ebola epidemic in 2014, which swept through three ill-prepared and unequipped West African countries. Now, one American study estimates there may be as many as 1.4 million cases of infection by Jan. 20. Some experts suggest the outbreak won’t be eradicated without a vaccine, something that could be available by mid-year but still may not be wholly effective.
Tensions in Asia-Pacific: 2015 is the 70th anniversary of the end of World War II, which is bound to stir up nationalist rhetoric in both China and Japan. Who can forget November’s painfully awkward meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe? Beijing and Tokyo still are squabbling over an archipelago, administered by Japan but claimed by both governments.
Global inequality: Surveys toward the end of 2014 highlighted the overwhelming concern of the majority of the planet: the threat of joblessness and, parallel to that, deepening social inequities. While the big banks have recovered from the Great Recession, millions of ordinary people still are coping with reduced incomes and the toll of government austerity measures. The trends suggest that, in some places, income inequality only will get worse in 2015.
North Korean craziness: We went through the Looking Glass with Pyongyang in 2014, with a decidedly terrible Hollywood movie turning into one of December’s main geopolitical flash points. Kim Jong Un’s regime is the world’s most mysterious and opaque and probably its most awful. The Council on Foreign Relations said a military provocation by North Korea, sparked perhaps by internal instability, may be one of the graver threats facing U.S. foreign policy makers in 2015.
The plight of the Rohingya: Spare a thought for one of the world’s most prominent “stateless” communities. The Rohingya of western Burma number more than a million and can trace their existence in the country back generations. Yet they are not recognized as citizens by the Burmese state, which considers them Bengali Muslim interlopers from neighboring Bangladesh. Those who have been displaced by sectarian violence and racist, Buddhist mobs live in “apartheid-like” conditions, according to reports.
