BEIRUT – The Syrian conflict has had an outsized impact on global politics. Five ways the world has changed:
It was in the vacuum of the deteriorating Syrian conflict that a little-known and terrifically violent branch of al-Qaeda grew into the foremost terror group on the planet.
Its expansion went largely unchecked by the Syrian government, which was busy fighting opponents in its more populated regions closer to the Mediterranean coast.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has established a renewed Middle East foothold after watching for years as the United States called shots in the region. Last September, after showering arms, advisers and economic assistance on President Bashar Assad to insufficient effect, Putin sent his air force to pound the Syrian government’s opponents. The recent ebb in violence is largely because Russia dictated it.
When Europe fashioned its open border agreements late last century, it did not anticipate over a million migrants in one year alone, as happened in 2015. The stream, which continues unabated, has brought on both generosity and xenophobia, shaking the open-border arrangement to the core.
Europe’s migrant crisis is dwarfed by the wave of displacement that has washed into Syria’s neighbors. Turkey, Lebanon and Jordan alone host around 4.4 million refugees from Syria; in Lebanon, they make up more than one-fifth of the population.
The Syrian conflict has rebalanced regional axes of power. Predominantly Shiite Iran’s sphere of influence now extends from Beirut to Tehran, with dependent governments in Baghdad and Damascus. The commander of the elite Quds Force of the vaunted Revolutionary Guards, Gen. Qassem Soleimani, has visited Russia and is often seen directing deployments in Syria and Iraq. Iran has militias in both countries said to operate outside sovereign command structures.
