A below-average winter followed by above-average temperatures is causing snowpack in the San Juan Mountains to melt earlier than usual.
According to the National Resource Conservation Service, the snowpack in the San Miguel-Dolores-Animas-San Juan River Basin was at 18% of the historical norm this week. That puts it about a month ahead of 2002 levels, which set the previous record-low snowpack.
National Weather Service meteorologist Kris Sanders said last winter could set a record for one of the earliest peak snowpacks – the period in spring when accumulated snow reaches its maximum volume and density before melting – since records began being kept.
“Usually melt out isn’t until mid-June,” he said. “The last earliest melt out was around May 19 or so. We could just blow that record out of the water.”
As of noon Friday, the Animas River was flowing through Durango at 1,005 cubic feet per second, according to RiverReports. The historical mean for March 27 is 386 cfs, based on 115 years of data.
This week’s higher flow is driven by above-average temperatures. But with limited snowpack, peak runoff may come months earlier than usual.
Tony Miley, co-owner of 4 Corners Riversports, said this spring’s peak flow could be low.
“I’m not feeling particularly optimistic about this year’s peak flows,” he said. “As far as a spring peak runoff, I don’t really expect we’ll see more than a couple 1,000 cfs.”
That could impact reservoir levels and irrigation ability, in addition to boating on the river, he said.
“A bad snowpack here impacts farmers, ranchers, everybody who pulls water out of the Animas and the reservoirs that rely on it to fill them,” Miley said.
But there is an important caveat, Sanders said.
Though recent weeks have seen above-average temperatures that have quickly melted snowpack, it is only March, and the San Juans are known to receive snowfall in April and May.
“I think we still have some time,” Sanders said. “April can still be a really good month, and one of the snowiest months as far as San Juans are concerned. So just the fact that we’re in this record hot, dry pattern doesn’t mean it’s the end all be all.”
On that note, Miley said a wet spring and robust summer monsoon could bolster the Animas’ flow.
“If we have a nice, wet, rainy spring, it can certainly keep water going, heading downstream,” he said. “So our fingers are certainly crossed for a rainy spring.”
He also noted that 2025’s peak flow didn’t arrive until October, when flooding rains swelled the Animas to 4,727 cfs. Last spring, the peak topped out at 2,500 cfs, according to RiverReports.
He said Durango’s boating community will adapt. For instance, he said 4 Corners Riversports is gearing toward selling more small water craft, including paddleboards and fishing kayaks.
“Surprisingly, with the warm weather, we’re doing well for this time of year because it’s been so warm,” Miley said. “We’ll see if that can maintain throughout this summer.”
David Moler, owner of rafting outfitter RiverTrippers, said he is optimistic even with a low snowpack. RiverTrippers began running trips early this year – with their first day of the season being Thursday. Just because the water is low, he said, does not mean that his business will suffer.
“We adapt very well,” he said. “When the river flows are low, we are using smaller boats. We’re able to navigate the river channel a lot easier with inflatable kayaks and 9½-foot boats.”
He said business is often more steady during low-flow years. Plenty of customers are looking for a fun, family friendly activity who may shy away from big whitewater.
“Realistically, the family of five coming up from wherever to go experience the river is not chasing high water,” Moler said. “You can navigate those waters (at low flows) and have a great time with your family when it’s 92 degrees outside and not have to break the bank or spend an arm and leg trying to make that happen.”
Smaller boats that carry fewer passengers are used during low-flow excursions. To remedy that, he said his company hires more raft guides to safely pilot those craft downstream.
Hiring more guides is an economic boon, he said, because they spend what they earn in town.
sedmondson@durangoherald.com
