Calling it an “affordable housing crisis” sounds alarming, but the numbers are staggering, and to keep pace with projected growth “crisis” is apt. For decades, La Plata County housing costs have increased more quickly than family incomes and have created a corresponding demand for modestly priced homes.
Today, the city of Durango and the county continue to experience a considerable and growing shortage of affordable and workforce housing. Combined with an anticipated increase in low-paying service sector jobs, the way forward will require land-use strategies, a mix of regulatory and market forces and the cooperation of the city and county, not-for-profit and private sectors.
According to the Regional Housing Alliance of La Plata County in its June 2015 Housing Demand Forecast (available at rhalpc.org), there is a growing affordability chasm for 46 percent of renters and 31 percent of homeowners who cannot afford their current housing payment. Especially in Durango, there is a strong demand and short supply of both rental units and “entry-level” homes that from 2013-2014 increased in price from $295,000 to $340,000.
That is hardly affordable and a point not lost on Nico Foster and other participants at Thursday night’s Community Housing Forum hosted by the city of Durango. In expressing the frustration he felt about the housing market, he asked rhetorically, “Who buys their first home for over $300,000?”
A young entrepreneur, it is people like Nico and his family the city is working to retain. The community’s character, health and sustainability depends on its ability to provide residency for its workers and general population. As RHA’s housing demand forecast highlights, the millennial generation and aging baby boomers will drive local growth, expected to increase by 52 percent, over the next 20 years. They desire a mix of smaller attached and detached single- and multifamily homes, townhouses and rental units near work and service centers.
At a 2.1 percent annual population growth rate, that will require 15,700 new dwelling units by 2035, or 790 developed annually. It is a projection more than double the 330 building permits the county issued in 2014 and a tall order.
Several community planning initiatives are currently underway to address this challenge. It is incumbent upon the city to provide the direction of where, what kind and how this development will occur and not just in general terms.
Plans must identify the specific carrying capacity of each neighborhood or district and ensure that new development does not erode the character and quality of life currently afforded residents. Not-for-profit housing organizations, and some for-profit developers aided by tax-credits, have developed hundreds of affordable housing units over the years for lower-income, senior and special-needs populations.
The financial feasibility of these projects depends on the availability of land and new infrastructure, or the ability to build up in a sensible way. They require incentives and regulations that, where appropriate, support mixed-use development, increased density and reduced height and parking restrictions, for example, that could require in lieu fees to fund public transit, parking decks and multi-modal projects to provide the walkable/bikeable lifestyle people desire.
The market alone will not provide affordable housing. But its availability depends upon a healthy and thriving housing market the city’s housing plan must support. It is a complex problem, but it is not new.
To join the conversation, attend the city’s comprehensive plan update meetings (see durangoplanupdate.org) at the end of January.
