A single violent tornado could cause as much as $20 billion in property damage – and countless casualties and deaths – if it hit a big city such as downtown Chicago, according to a report released Tuesday by Swiss Re, a global reinsurance company.
“This would be the most severe tornado damage in U.S. history,” according to the report, which is called U.S. Tornadoes: An Examination of the Past to Prepare for the Future.
In addition to the deaths and injuries, “there would be thousands of people made homeless, tens of thousands would lose power and hundreds of thousands would be unable to get to work,” said Megan Linkin, natural hazards expert with Swiss Re.
Ferocious tornado outbreaks have plagued the U.S. in recent years, with high death tolls and damages from twisters in and around smaller cities such as Joplin, Mo., Tuscaloosa, Ala., and Moore, Okla. Overall, the annual average loss from severe thunderstorms and the tornadoes they produce is about $5.5 billion, Swiss Re reports.
The costliest single tornado to hit a city was the EF5-twister that leveled portions of Joplin, Mo., in 2011, killing more than 150 people and causing $2.1 billion in damage. But no EF3 (or stronger) tornado has struck one of the nation’s major metropolitan areas in the past decade, and no major city has experienced a worst-case scenario event since 1950, according to Swiss Re.
Big cities don’t have some magic protective shield – so why is it that they so seldom seem to get hit?
“Simply, downtowns cover tiny land areas relative to the entire nation,” notes meteorologist Roger Edwards on the Storm Prediction Center website.
“The chance of any particular tornado hitting a major downtown is quite low – not for any meteorological reason, but simply because downtowns are small targets,” Edwards writes. “Even when tornadoes hit metro areas, their odds of hitting downtown are small out of space considerations alone.”
However, Swiss Re believe that a violent, severe long-track tornado is possible in Chicago.
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