Matchups for the AFC championship game between the Denver Broncos and the New England Patriots on Sunday at Sports Authority Field:
When the Patriots (13-4) have the ball: Run, baby, run.
The Patriots? Yep.
While all four remaining teams in the playoffs have solid ground games, New England has ridden the backs of its backs the most effectively. Sure, quarterback Tom Brady is among the best ever and is seeking a fourth Super Bowl ring, but he’s also among the smartest ever. Brady knows that if his trio of runners – LeGarrette Blount, Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen – are gouging the opponent, it’s the best approach to keep at it.
Blount has been unstoppable recently, rushing for 431 yards and eight touchdowns in the last three games. He scored four times in the rout of Indianapolis last week and is the power back the Patriots have lacked for a while.
That they’ve gotten such production behind an offensive line that entered the season with some uncertainty has been impressive, too. Left guard Logan Mankins and left tackle Nate Solder anchor the group, which has allowed only six sacks in the last four games.
Give Brady time, and it’s a recipe for defeat for the opposition. So Denver has a dilemma: Would it rather force the clutch-passing Brady to go to the air or deal with the run game?
The Broncos’ defense was staunch for most of the divisional round win over San Diego, but it has lots of holes. It ranked 19th this season and is without its best player, injured linebacker Von Miller, so there’s vulnerability.
Losing cornerback Chris Harris to a knee injury won’t help, either. A hefty burden will be placed on the front seven to bottle up the run and get some pressure on Brady when he throws. That would make things much more comfortable for defensive backs Champ Bailey and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie.
Although Brady’s crew of targets significantly was downgraded this season by the departure of wide receiver Wes Welker – to Denver, of all places – and Brandon Lloyd, injuries to tight end Rob Gronkowski, and the arrest of tight end Aaron Hernandez on murder charges, he’s made the best of it. In fact, he’s helped turn Julian Edelman into another Welker.
Danny Amendola is another pint-sized wideout, and the rest of the receivers have contributed in spots.
Not having to deal with Gronk should make Denver linebackers Danny Trevathan and Wesley Woodyard more available in all defensive areas. If the line, led by defensive tackle Terrance Knighton and defensive end Shaun Phillips gets some penetration and slows the running game, it will make the Patriots more one-dimensional.
Then again, is that such a good thing when Brady is chucking the ball?
When the Broncos (14-3) have the ball: Things are a lot more simple on Denver’s offense.
Sure, running back Knowshon Moreno had a career-best 224 yards on a career-high 37 carries in a November loss at Foxborough. And rookie Montee Ball can be a significant contributor.
But everyone knows this attack is all about quarterback Peyton Manning.
Manning broke Brady’s single-season marks with 55 touchdown passes and 5,477 yards in the air, and the Broncos established an NFL record with 606 points. It would be the capper to one of the greatest careers in league history for Manning to get his second championship, and he has the supporting cast to do so.
The main problem is that New England has had his number. Manning is 4-10 against Brady, and the defenses schemed by Patriots’ head coach Bill Belichick often have puzzled him.
The Patriots’ defense, sparked by linebacker Jamie Collins, defensive end Chandler Jones and defensive end/linebacker Rob Ninkovich, really has come on late in the season as Belichick kept plugging in new faces when regulars went down with injuries. That New England lost its best two defenders, linebacker Jerod Mayo and defensive tackle Vince Wilfork, and prospered is somewhat amazing.
Belichick will instruct his defensive backs, led by Devin McCourty and Aqib Talib, to be extra-physical from the outset. It’s a plan that has worked for New England for a few decades, going back to the 2002 Super Bowl upset of a similarly high-powered offense, the Rams’ “Greatest Show on Turf.”
So the ability of receivers big – Eric Decker, Demaryius Thomas and tight end Julius Thomas – and small (Welker) – to avoid those bumps and remain on their routes will be critical for Denver. Manning has to hope the officials also aren’t particularly lenient in what they allow the Patriots to do on defense. It has happened before – often.
Welker’s contributions will be of the highest interest, because the Patriots know his game inside-out. Denver’s best matchup through the air could wind up being tight end Thomas, particularly if he draws coverage from a linebacker such as Collins or Dont’a Hightower.
Special Teams
Denver kicker Matt Prater broke the NFL record with a 64-yard field goal and might have the strongest leg in the league. But New England’s Stephen Gostkowski is no slouch. Both are reliable in tight situations and from distance; in Denver’s thin air, that’s important.
Ryan Allen was sidelined with a right shoulder injury in the victory over Indianapolis, so their punting situation is somewhat uncertain. Of course, they hope they never have to punt the ball back to Manning.
Denver’s Britton Colquitt is among the NFL’s top punters.
The only game-breaker among the kick returners is Denver’s Trindon Holliday, who must show he can hang onto the ball. Blount has done well on kickoff returns, including an 83-yarder.
New England’s coverage units are strong, while Denver’s are not nearly as stingy.
Coaching
Belichick bested John Fox when Fox was coaching Carolina in the 2004 Super Bowl. Obviously, Belichick is seeking a fourth Super Bowl title, rare territory, and hasn’t won it all since 2005. He’ll come up with something on both sides of the ball that will trouble Denver.
Fox, who missed a month of the schedule after heart surgery, is a strong motivator, too, and is smart enough to keep the reins very loose on Manning. His background is in defense, but that’s where the Broncos have struggled under him this season, in large part because they lost five defenders to injured reserve, and injuries to Bailey and Woodyard made them backups for most of 2013.
Intangibles
Start with Brady having lost his last two Super Bowls and not playing particularly well in either of them.
Add in Manning seeking his third trip to the big game and an emphatic stamp of approval as a championship quarterback.
The Broncos also are spurred on by their meltdown late in last year’s playoff loss to Baltimore at home. New England is driven by no championships in nearly a decade.
Neither side will forget the regular-season meeting, either. Denver wants to replicate the first half in which it forced a slew of turnovers and went ahead 24-0. New England wants to carry the momentum from its second-half surge to victory.
