The first presidential primary caucus isn’t for six months – Feb. 1 in Iowa – but citizens are already immersed in the 2016 campaign. Like horse races, we are conditioned to think about candidates as the favorites, the ones who can go the distance and the long shots.
Of course, the real race is among the 17 Republican candidates seeking the nomination. While nothing is certain in politics, one can assume with confidence that Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic nominee, the current attention to Sen. Bernie Sanders not withstanding. One of the most unlikely Republican candidates is receiving most of the media attention and holding a lead in the polls at this early stage. The Donald – boisterous, narcissistic, a human Scud missile – is like the high-schooler who finally hits a home run against a team with zero victories and thinks a big league contract will be his before long.
Donald Trump, the real estate magnate whose wealth ranges from a scraggly couple of billion to perhaps 10, is enjoying the attention, garnering the fan support, can say what he wants to without worry of antagonizing potential campaign donors and leaves his Republican rivals wondering what they can do to shove him off the cliff (or have him implode during the Fox TV debates) and get their own publicity on the national news. Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) took a chain saw to the U.S. Tax Code and didn’t make prime time, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) put his cellphone in a blender after Trump publicized his phone number, and this did get some attention.
But, Trump doesn’t have to resort to such gimmicks. He’s the candidate who really can tout being a political outsider and say what he wants to. While he may think there’s a coronation in the future, it’s not going to happen.
The Donald realizes that the outrageous – but not lunatic – statements make the headlines. He’s popular with a conservative segment that has been frustrated for decades. This element was attracted to former Alabama Gov. George Wallace, Texas billionaire Ross Perot and former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, and they’re now drawn, along with some dissidents of other political persuasions, to Trump. For them, plain speaking is valued over political doublespeak and framing complex matters in simple terms is vastly superior to a five-point lecture.
There’s a political seductiveness to Trump. As Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban says, “I don’t care if he says the wrong thing. He gives honest answers rather than prepared answers. This is more important than anything any candidate has done in years.”
Indeed, a common frustration with politicians is the way they do the hokey pokey to avoid giving a lucid response to a relevant question for fear of antagonizing others.
Clinton did this recently, sidestepping a position on the controversial Keystone Pipeline by claiming it’s President Obama’s decision to make.
Au contraire. If a candidate is running for the presidential nomination, then the contender should recognize the public’s right to know one’s stance on issues of the day. Public cynicism about politics and politicians are fed by doublespeak.
Political figures often speak in vague generalities because they know that the public wants a soothing statement – hence such throwaway lines like “I stand for job growth,” “I want a challenging education for our children,” “I want to make America strong again,” and so forth, but without any details about how these worthy goals are to be achieved and at what costs.
As others have sadly noted over the past several decades, we’re all too accepting of the soundbites from candidates, bumper-sticker slogans with the content of cotton candy. Image overrides substance.
The Donald won’t make it through the primaries. No political experience, three marriages and his high unfavorability ratings doom him in the long run. He may be entertaining to watch, but his manner is decidedly unpresidential.
Colorado will be a much contested state in 2016 because it can tilt Democratic or Republican. Right now, the Republicans can’t encourage a meaningful challenger to Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet, but in hypothetical contests between several presidential wannabes, they come out ahead. In a recent survey of Colorado voters, Jeb Bush would best Clinton by 5 percentage points, Scott Walker ahead by 9 and Marco Rubio wins by 8. Headache news for Democrats.
Coloradans will see a lot of the candidates as the March 1 caucus date approaches (Super Tuesday, when 12 states will caucus or hold primary elections), and mailboxes will be jammed with political ads touting why you should vote this way or that. Be critical and look beneath the fluff for how each candidate proposes to achieve his or her promises. Pounding the table and lashing out at opponents makes for good political theater, but this does not give us the information we need to evaluate a candidate’s fitness for office.
John Culver is a retired political science professor. He lives in Durango. Reach him at john.culver3@gmail.com.
