“Filthy water cannot be washed.” – West African proverb
I felt a bit odd as I completed my previous column – which discussed the ongoing drought in the Western and West Coast states – shortly after a massive snowstorm, followed by a week of sporadic rain, hit Oregon’s Willamette Valley, where I live. Maybe the drought was turning around, and my glum prognostications were off.
Discussing this with my wife, I said, “I’m torn by the drought relief these storms might bring. Naturally, I want farmers to do well, forest fires reduced and so on. But as soon as we get some rain, many people will think global warming has ‘gone away,’ and they won’t do anything about it.”
The fact is that no one knows what the short-term future will bring. Even if it is too late for the current drought in California – arguably the worst-hit state – to be relieved by this spring’s rains, there is hope that some relief will come by next winter. Many climatologists are predicting the return of the oscillating “El Niño” warm surface-water condition in the Pacific that normally brings more rain to Southern California and the Southwest.
But there are complications. First, El Niño conditions usually reduce precipitation in the Northwest and Midwest, both of which are experiencing drought.
Second, typical El Niño precipitation might be disrupted because of warming in the Arctic region – which is heating up at about twice the rate of the rest of the planet – and the loss of the polar ice cap. Climate models have predicted that Arctic warming would create lasting high-pressure ridges that could block West Coast precipitation, and so far, these predictions have proved true.
Finally, there can be problems with increased precipitation itself. For decades, global-warming models have predicted that storms will be fewer and farther between but carry more moisture because of increased evaporation caused by global warming. This, and the fact that much of the land will be parched, also because of evaporation, can set up the kind of disaster that occurred when rain finally came to Southern California in late February.
Three years of intense drought in the Los Angeles region desiccated the land and caused extensive wildfires that denuded many hills of their vegetation. Rain finally arrived as a series of massive storms – 7 inches fell on one area in 24 hours – that caused flash floods throughout the region and as far north as San Jose, near San Francisco.
Lives were lost, property was destroyed, and millions will be spent on the cleanup – which could be wasted effort if another storm hits. And the real irony is that most of the rainwater ran off to the sea – the soil was too dry and compacted to hold it.
What can we do? We’ll explore some options in the next column. Until then, remember that the first step in recovery is acceptance – in this case, the fact that climate chaos has arrived at our ecological house.
Philip S. Wenz, who grew up in Durango and Boulder, now lives in Corvallis, Ore., where he teaches and writes about environmental issues. www.your-ecological-house.com.
