DENVER – In a first-of-its-kind poll for Colorado, Democrat Hillary Clinton has a 9-point advantage over Republican Donald Trump.
The Colorado Mesa University-Rocky Mountain PBS Poll released Thursday also highlights that Democratic incumbent Michael Bennet has a 13-point lead over Republican challenger Darryl Glenn in the U.S. Senate race.
Unlike other polling for Colorado this election season, the poll Thursday was conducted by pollsters from within the state, using Colorado Mesa University’s newest research center. It partnered with Franklin and Marshall College in Pennsylvania.
“No one understands the diversity of opinions across the state of Colorado more than Coloradans,” said CMU President Tim Foster. “No other university in Colorado is currently polling Coloradans. We saw the need and are fortunate that Rocky Mountain PBS is joining with us to meet that need.”
The survey’s sample of error could be as much 6.3 percentage points in either direction.
Interviews were conducted Sept. 14-18 and included 172 Democrats, 174 Republicans and 154 unaffiliated voters.
Clinton leads Trump, 44 percent to 35 percent, among the state’s likely voters. But when all four major candidates are included, Clinton’s lead shrinks to a 7-point advantage.
Interestingly, unaffiliated voters are breaking strongly for Clinton, 34 percent to 12 percent for Trump, with Libertarian Gary Johnson receiving 1-in-4 unaffiliated votes.
When all four candidates are included among all likely voters, Johnson receives 12 percent and Green Party candidate Jill Stein receives 3 percent.
A Quinnipiac University poll also released Thursday has Clinton and Trump essentially tied in Colorado. In a four-way race listing both presidential and vice-presidential candidates, Clinton has 44 percent to Trump’s 42 percent, with 10 percent for Johnson and 2 percent for Stein.
The poll shows a tightening following an Aug. 17 survey by Quinnipiac, when Clinton topped Trump 41 percent to 33 percent in a four-way race.
The two presidential candidates are tied at 47 percent in a head-to-head matchup among likely voters.
“Once a red state, headed towards blue, you can’t get more purple than a tie and that’s where Colorado is as Election Day approaches,” said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.
In the U.S. Senate race, Bennet leads Glenn, 45 percent to 32 percent.
There is some good news, however, for Glenn, as 20 percent of voters are undecided in the race, offering Glenn a chance to tighten the contest, though he faces an uphill battle against a well-funded Bennet.
Glenn leads Bennet only in the northeast and central regions of the state and among those with some college education.
When Libertarian candidate Lily Tang Williams, Green Party candidate Arn Menconi and Unity Party candidate Bill Hammons are considered, Bennet’s lead over Glenn decreases to 11 points, 42 percent to 31 percent for Glenn among likely voters.
When all five candidates are included among all likely voters, Williams receives 3 percent, Menconi garners 1 percent and Hammons does not register support.
The poll also took a look at favorability, which has factored into both the presidential and U.S. Senate races, as Republicans have tried to paint Clinton and Bennet as unfavorable.
Clinton’s favorable rating of 40 percent in the poll is higher than Trump’s 20 percent.
While Bennet did not receive a majority, 41 percent of voters believe he has done a “good enough job” to deserve re-election, according to the poll.
Voters appear to support gradually raising the minimum wage, making it more difficult to amend the state constitution and allowing terminally ill patients to access life-ending medication. Four of nine statewide ballot issues facing voters in November were included in the poll.
Amendment 70, which would gradually raise the minimum wage to $12 by 2020, had 58 percent approval.
Amendment 71, which would require signatures from at least 2 percent of registered voters in each of the 35 state Senate districts before an issue could qualify for the ballot, and 55 percent of the vote to pass, has 53 percent support in the poll.
Proposition 106, which would grant patients with a prognosis of six months or less to live access to life-ending medication, has a whopping 70 percent approval rate.
But Amendment 69, which would create a universal health care system, would fail in November, according to the poll, with 56 percent opposed.
pmarcus@durangoherald.com