DENVER – Snowpack in the mountains and valleys where the Colorado River originates has been shrinking since the beginning of March, a federal water expert said Tuesday.
The snow ranged between 89 and 91 percent of the long-term average, depending on which measurement is used.
“We dried out relatively significantly here since the beginning of March,” said Brian Domonkos, supervisor of the Colorado Snow Survey for the U.S. Agriculture Department.
In Southwest Colorado, the Natural Resources Conservation Services reported as of Tuesday that the current percentage of normal snowpack is at 70 percent, 80 percent of the snowpack at this time last year, for the San Miguel, Dolores, Animas and San Juan river basins.
The water in Southwest Colorado reservoirs ranged from 49 percent of capacity at McPhee Reservoir near Dolores to 79 percent of capacity at Vallecito Reservoir. Lemon Reservoir is at 58 percent of capacity, and Navajo Reservoir is at 65 percent.
Domonkos told the state task force on water availability that recent warm weather had begun to melt the snow at lower elevations in parts of the Colorado River basin.
Colorado’s snowpack closely is watched because it provides water for four major river systems that originate in the state: the Platte, the Arkansas, the Rio Grande and the Colorado.
The Colorado River is under especially close scrutiny because it helps supply California, which is in the middle of a historic drought. The most recent assessment available showed 40 percent of California was in an exceptional drought, the driest of five categories used by the federal government’s U.S. Drought Monitor. Nearly 28 percent was in an extreme drought, the second-driest category.
In addition to the Colorado River basin, three other river basins in the western part of the state feed into the Colorado River downstream. In those basins, the snowpack was 72 to 79 percent of average Tuesday.
East of the Continental Divide, snowpack in the basin that feeds the South Platte was average, while the North Platte River basin was at 85 percent. The North Platte flows north into Wyoming before turning east into Nebraska, where it joins the South Platte to form the Platte River.
The Arkansas River basin had 96 percent of average snowpack, and the Upper Rio Grande basin had 77 percent.
Early indications are that the risk of flooding in Colorado will be lower this year than last but still higher than average, said Klaus Wolter, a climate scientist with the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences in Boulder.
The Durango Herald contributed to this report.
In the forecast
While it won’t be enough to alleviate drought conditions, Southwest Colorado may get some moisture starting Wednesday and possibly continuing through Sunday.
“It looks like your best shot will be Thursday and Thursday night when there’s a 50 percent chance of precipitation,” said Dan Cuevas, a technician with the Grand Junction office of the National Weather Service. “At least it’s more than we’ve had in recent days. This will clear out above Northwestern Colorado, but it may hang on over you.”
Because of warm temperatures – the weather service is predicting low 50s and high 60s until at least next Tuesday – any snow, which is likely to be light, will fall only above 10,000 feet in the southern San Juan Mountains.
The good news?
“There’s a storm that may be stronger that may come in (March 25),” Cuevas said.
