COVID-19 cases are falling in La Plata and Archuleta counties.
Cases in the two-county area have dropped dramatically since the middle of January as the sharp surge of the omicron variant begins to fade. But even as cases decline, hospitalizations remain high.
“We’re on a downward trend,” said Chandler Griffin, spokesman for San Juan Basin Public Health. “The trend indicates the peak of the omicron surge is behind us.
“At the same time, hospitalizations remain extremely high,” he said.
Cases in La Plata County peaked Jan. 12 with 332 new cases reported, according to SJBPH data. In Archuleta County, cases also peaked on Jan. 12 with 54 new cases.
In the last three weeks, case rates have plummeted from a seven-day average of 197.4 to 56.9 new cases per day in La Plata County as of Wednesday.
Archuleta County’s case rate reflects a similar decline from a high of about 32.5 new cases per day to about 9.9 as of Wednesday.
Public health officials have begun to see other signs that the worst of the omicron surge is behind the area.
“Decreasing case counts have led to a more normalized volume at community testing sites and have allowed our contact-tracing team to resume 100% contact tracing,” Griffin said.
As cases swelled in late December and early January, SJBPH contact tracers had to prioritize their efforts. Unable to interview everyone, they focused on those who were high risk, including people of advanced age, those who were in long-term care facilities and congregate settings, and those who worked at or attended schools.
Those who were not high risk received a text or email with isolation instructions and instructions for informing those they had been in contact with instead of the usual phone call.
As cases have declined, contact tracers with SJBPH have returned to interviewing anyone who tests positive and tracking down their contacts.
“We do see really encouraging signs from the case data and the positivity data that we’re headed in the right direction,” Griffin said.
Across Colorado and the U.S., cases continue to decline about as fast as they rose.
New cases in the state have fallen by 55% over the last two weeks, according to The New York Times tracker.
Colorado’s statewide seven-day average of new cases has dropped below 5,000 for the first time since the beginning of January, said State Epidemiologist Dr. Rachel Herlihy on Thursday during a Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment news conference.
The seven-day positivity rate has also fallen below 16%, she said, a mark the state has not reached since the omicron surge began.
Across the country, cases have declined by 52% in the last two weeks, according to The New York Times tracker.
Waning cases are a positive development, but they must be placed in context, Griffin said.
“We still have higher rates of transmission today than we had at any point during the delta surge, so this is all relatively speaking,” he said.
Hospitalizations have begun improving in Colorado, but in the southwest corner of the state, hospitals remain full.
Only 4% of ICU beds and 17% of acute care beds were available as of Friday in Southwest Colorado, according to CDPHE data.
More than 1,150 confirmed COVID-19 patients remain hospitalized across the state.
“Statewide hospitalizations are declining. In our community, we have not seen that yet,” Griffin said.
Public health officials are not surprised by the sustained pressure on Southwest Colorado’s hospitals.
“Hospitalizations typically come down after you start to see case counts decline,” Griffin said. “Case counts decline after you start to see testing positivity rates decline.”
As La Plata and Archuleta counties emerge from omicron, SJBPH has begun considering modifying the protective measures it has in place.
“We have a public health advisory (that’s) still in effect,” Griffin said. “But if this downward trend continues, we’ll be looking at that to see if we can make changes and ease up on certain parts of it as conditions allow. Certain precautions won’t be as important.”
The future of the pandemic remains less than certain, but indications point to public health officials treating the coronavirus as an endemic, in which the disease regularly circulates in communities like the flu, instead of a pandemic.
According to The Colorado Sun, CDPHE and the state have already begun planning the shift.
Griffin confirmed that public health officials expect the coronavirus will stay.
“It’s reasonable to expect some level of the virus circulating, that we will in some way be living with the virus in the months ahead,” he said.
Vaccinations remain the best way to protect oneself, he said.
Boosted Coloradans are 8.1 times less likely to die from COVID-19 than those fully vaccinated without a third dose and 58.8 times less likely to die than those who remain unvaccinated, according to CDPHE data.
“This is good news, but certainly not a time to let our guard down,” Griffin said.
ahannon@durangoherald.com
