Republicans flipped three seats in the Colorado House of Representatives, costing Democrats their supermajority in the chamber next year – an outcome that didn’t become clear until late Thursday night when the final votes were counted in a pair of races with paper-thin margins.
Republican defense contractor Rebecca Keltie defeated Democratic Rep. Stephanie Vigil by seven votes in House District 16 to win the Colorado Springs-based seat. In House District 19, former state Rep. Dan Woog, a Republican from Frederick, defeated Longmont Democrat Jillaire McMillan by 123 votes, or 0.22 percentage points. That flips a seat currently held by Democratic Rep. Jennifer Parenti, who dropped her reelection bid this summer.
The narrow margins in the Nov. 5 election triggered a recount in both races. If the results hold, they will reduce the Democratic edge in the House to 43-22 from 46-19. (Democratic state Rep. Mary Young of Greeley also lost her reelection bid in House District 50 to Republican Ryan Gonzalez.)
The races, decided Thursday when local elections officials finished counting ballots cast in the Nov. 5 election, were the final two legislative contests decided in a 2024 election that saw voters largely reaffirm the statewide dominance of Colorado Democrats. The party still has big majorities in the Legislature.
Still, the results are a disappointment for Democrats, who had hoped to win one more seat in the Senate and keep their House advantage to achieve a rare, veto-proof supermajority at the Capitol.
“Colorado voters spoke loudly, supporting two common-sense leaders in Dan Woog and Rebecca Keltie,” House Minority Leader Rose Pugliese, R-Colorado Springs, said in a written statement. “The message is clear: Coloradans want a lower cost of living and a thriving economy. The Democratic policies pushing higher taxes and fees are not the way forward for Coloradans across the state.”
House Speaker Julie McCluskie, D-Dillon, had a different take.
“While we will miss our colleagues who worked tirelessly for their constituents, let’s be clear: the priorities of the MAGA GOP will be stopped dead in their tracks by voters who elected an overwhelming majority of legislative Democrats, the second largest Democratic majority since the 1960s,” she said in a written statement. “Their self congratulations ring hollow when they are still walking into the Capitol without a shred of voter support for their extreme agenda.”
She added: “My door will always be open to those who show up in good faith to make Colorado more affordable and protect our rights and freedoms, but we will hold firm against extremism, hate and GOP policies that are out of touch with the vast majority of Coloradans who supported Democrats.”
McCluskie’s comments drew a swift response from Pugliese, who wrote on social media that the speaker was “refusing to take accountability for the losses that voters handed to her caucus.”
Democrats remain in firm control of every branch of state government, controlling both chambers of the Legislature, the governorship and other statewide offices.
And, because a number of moderate Democrats leaving the Senate this year will be replaced by more progressive House members, the net result of the November election could be a leftward shift for the policies passed at the Capitol, despite the Republican gains.
The swing district race in House District 16 gave Colorado Springs voters a choice of political extremes, pitting one of the Legislature’s most liberal members in Vigil against Keltie, a Republican who canvassed for an election denial group following the 2020 election.
The final margin in the district was 50.01% to 49.99%. Colorado law requires an automatic recount when the difference between the top candidates – seven votes, in this case – is less than 0.5% of the winner’s vote total.
Woog, a property manager and former Erie town trustee, won by a margin just within the automatic recount threshold. That means votes will be retallied in House District 19, too.
The recounts must be completed by Dec. 6. Recounts typically only shift the results of a race by a vote or two – if any at all – not enough to change the outcome of the contest in either House District 16 or 19.
The electorate in House Districts 16 and 19 leaned slightly Republican in 2021, when nonpartisan legislative staff conducted an analysis of past election results when the districts’ boundaries were redrawn as part of Colorado’s once-a-decade redistricting process. House District 50 leaned in Democrats’ favor.
The final tally Thursday also ends speculation that an incumbent Democrat in the Senate may lose her seat.
Commerce City Democratic Sen. Dafna Michaelson Jenet held onto her seat in Senate District 21 in a race that was far closer than expected, defeating Republican Frederick Alfred Jr. 51.1% to 48.9%. That margin is outside the automatic threshold margin.
An analysis of past election results by nonpartisan legislative staff conducted when Senate District 21 was redrawn in 2021 found that it leaned nearly 14 percentage points in Democrats’ favor.
Michaelson Jenet’s victory maintains the current partisan makeup of the Senate, with Democrats controlling 23 seats to Republicans’ 12.
