Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif on Tuesday offered to take a year to resolve Iran’s nuclear standoff with world powers. But that is probably too long a time period for the West and Israel, which believes Iran is stalling for time to complete its bomb.
Zarif’s written offer was labeled “Closing an Unnecessary Crisis, and Opening a New Horizon,” and proposes a three-step plan to settle the conflict “within a year.”
The proposal, details of which were not revealed, is being mulled by a group of Western nations called the P5+1 (the United States, Britain, France, China and Russia and Germany), which were meeting Tuesday in Geneva for talks with the Iranians.
Iran is hoping to get the nations to end economic sanctions designed to pressure Iran into letting inspectors visit its nuclear facilities and verify its claim that the program is entirely peaceful. But some were suspicious of Iran’s timeline.
“In the real world, we don’t have a year,” said David Albright, president of the Institute for Science and International Security. “If Zarif wants to wait a year, he’s going to face stronger U.S. sanctions and potentially an Israeli strike.”
Iran ended talks with the West years ago and has been building industrial-scale uranium enrichment facilities that go far beyond what is needed for medical or energy needs, according to the United States. The U.N. International Atomic Energy Agency has recently reported finding evidence that Iran has tested nuclear detonators for bombs.
Western negotiators in Geneva said they were pleased that the Iranians made a proposal.
“It was useful to hear from the Iranian side what they envisage. ... We do need to hear more detail from the Iranian side,” said Michael Mann, spokesman for European Union foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton, who is leading the talks with Iran.
The United States has said Iran may have enough equipment in place within a year to “break out” to produce enough highly enriched uranium for an atomic bomb without detection by international monitors. Israel believes it will have the capability in months, and says it will attack Iran if necessary to stop it from producing a weapon.
Albright says Iran’s negotiating strategy risks raising tensions as time passes without concluding a deal.“U.S. negotiators would like important steps done right now, to delay that critical (breakout) capability,” Albright said. “The Iranians probably want to keep their breakout times intact and to continue to lower them.”
Mark Dubowitz, executive director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said Iran’s year-long timeline shows Iran realizes it must get relief from sanctions soon. But he he doubts Iran is negotiating in good faith.
“A year is a good amount of time to rope a dope the P5+1, string things along and get to critical nuclear capability and be at or near a breakout capability” by the time a deal is done, he said.
Israel’s Diplomatic-Security Cabinet released a statement Tuesday calling for continued pressure from sanctions on Iran until it dismantles enrichment facilities, removes its stockpiles of enriched uranium and proves its nuclear program is peaceful.
“Iran claims that it supposedly has the ‘right to enrich.’ But a country that regularly deceives the international community, that violates U.N. Security Council resolutions, that participates in the slaughter of civilians in Syria and that promotes terror worldwide, has no such right,” it said.
Some experts questioned why Iran would need a year to open up its facilities and prove its program is no threat.
Suzanne Maloney, a former State Department Iran policy planner under former president George W. Bush, said Iran could dismantle uranium enrichment facilities, eliminate its enriched uranium stockpiles and stop work at its Arak heavy water reactor in months.
Such actions would bring Iran in compliance with U.N. Security Council resolutions and obtain quick relief from sanctions.
“Should negotiations go badly from the start there’s going to be a greater sense of urgency,” Maloney said.
Much depends on how Iran conducts its nuclear program in the coming year and whether it continues installing centrifuges and developing other facilities, Maloney said.
“The Israelis have been understandably anxious about an Iranian nuclear capability for years now,” she said. “But it’s premature to suggest a process that is finally showing momentum is not moving fast enough to hold off an Israeli attack.”
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