Once the cornerstone of any fantasy football dynasty, running backs are now second fiddle to the wide receiver position. You could say this seismic shift started in 2013, the year Shawn Siegele of Rotoviz unveiled his now-famous Zero RB strategy, which suggested steering clear of running backs until the fifth or sixth round of a draft. It was blasphemous at the time, bucking conventional wisdom that advocated starting your draft by picking two running backs, but the strategy has gained more validity each season since. This year, according to consensus average draft position data, wide receivers are expected to occupy three of the top six draft slots - with four receivers being selected with the No. 1 pick - and half the first round overall.
For Zero RB to be successful, you need to target running backs with upside, and that means looking for running backs who, in addition to being productive at the goal line, catch passes out of the backfield.
This is a two-step process. The first is to figure out which offenses will be the most successful in the passing game, while the second requires an application of our new Draft Score metric, which compares players at their respective positions, earning them a rating from 1 to 100, with higher numbers indicating better fantasy football players, in an attempt to highlight running backs projected to be available in the later rounds who could help make this strategy successful.
Here are four late-round running backs that fit the bill:
Gore carried the ball 263 times last season, producing 1,025 yards and four touchdowns on the ground and another 277 yards with four touchdowns through the air, catching 38 of the 47 passes thrown his way. He’s also had more than 310 opportunities with the ball (carries plus targets) in each of his two seasons with the Colts, and that’s despite Andrew Luck playing just 22 games since the start of the 2015 season.
And before you discount his production in light of Luck’s most recent injury, consider the then 33-year-old Gore averaged 3.7 yards per carry against eight defenders in the box in 2016, a respectable mark considering the league average was 3.9 yards per carry.
In addition, the Colts’ offensive line was above average at run blocking in 2016 (13th overall) per the game charters at Pro Football Focus and is young enough to take a step forward in 2017.
The rookie is currently third on the depth chart, but Perine has all the tools to be a featured back in Coach Jay Gruden’s offense.
During his time at Oklahoma, Perine rushed for 4,122 yards, a school record, and scored 49 touchdowns, adding 40 receptions for 321 yards and two touchdowns by catching passes out of the backfield. According to The Washington Post’s Mike Jones, Perine continues to show off his receiving skills with “good hands and the ability to run routes well” in training camp.
He also can run with the football. According to Pro Football Focus, Perine averaged 3.3 yards after contact per attempt in his college career, a higher rate than his competition, Rob Kelley, did at Tulane (2.4), which could bode well for Perine’s use in the red zone.
Kelley, meanwhile, averaged just 2.41 yards per carry in the red zone (22nd in the NFL) and only 1.16 yards after first contact (ranking 18th) in 2016, per ESPN’s John Keim, giving Perine a shot at a featured role.
West was competing with Kenneth Dixon in camp, but with Dixon expected to miss all of the 2017 season after requiring surgery to repair a medial meniscus, coupled with Lorenzo Taliaferro’s move to fullback, West could secure the starting gig.
West set career highs in yards from scrimmage (1,010) and total touchdowns (6) last season, earning the 12th-highest grade at the position from Pro Football Focus. He ranked seventh in breakaway percentage in 2016, with more than a third of his rushing yardage (35.1 percent) occurring on runs of 15 yards or more.
And while he might concede some opportunities to new teammate Danny Woodhead on passing plays out of the backfield, it’s worth noting West averaged 1.54 yards per route run last season, 11th among backs targeted 25 percent of the time when asked to run a pattern.
Carolina’s No. 1 running back, Stewart has to fend off rookies Christian McCaffrey and Curtis Samuel from siphoning his touches.
It shouldn’t be too difficult. He had at least seven total touchdowns and at least 880 yards from scrimmage in each of his last two seasons, and Coach Ron Rivera and running back coach Jim Skipper reiterated in June that Stewart’s role will not change. Plus, the 30-year-old back has shown no signs of aging, gaining the highest percentage of his total yards after contact among running backs last season.
Pro Football Focus tabbed Stewart as the best pass-blocking running back in the league last season, something McCaffrey and Samuel will have to work on to knock Stewart from the top spot.
