DENVER – Boulder-based scientists behind a “revolutionary” new technology that could change the face of natural-disaster response across the world argue, “Research builds upon past failures.”

In Colorado – where fires and floods hang like the storm clouds that produce them – a modern approach to emergency response could save lives and limit the toll on property and infrastructure. The key is knowing how those disasters will behave in order to better utilize manpower and resources.

The technology uses advanced weather forecasting to recognize that disasters unfold as they relate to the atmosphere.

“We’ve got to change what we’re doing to provide people more relevant information and more timely information,” said David Gochis, a scientist with the Hydrometeorology Applications Program at the National Center for Atmospheric Research’s Research Applications Laboratory, which developed the decades-in-the-making technology.

“We’re getting the human a little bit out of the process because while humans can add a lot of value, they can also slow the process down,” Gochis said.

Lawmakers, including Sen. Ellen Roberts, a Durango Republican, and Rep. Tracy Kraft-Tharp, an Arvada Democrat, are pushing a measure this year that would create a five-year, $10 million program to begin implementing the separate technologies – one for fires and one for floods.

If the measure passes, Colorado would pioneer the groundbreaking systems.

The two lawmakers currently are searching for money to support their effort. The bill made it past its first committee hearing, but it won’t make it to the budgeting portion of the debate until next month, after lawmakers receive an upcoming state revenue forecast and discussions about the state budget are more defined.

Researchers have been careful not to limit the development of the technology, opening its evolution to a wide spectrum of scientists and researchers who have offered their input over more than 20 years.

Developers say part of the process is changing how responders think about natural disasters. In the case of fires, the thinking has revolved around wind, slope and wildland-fuel properties. The current thinking allows for only simple projections of how a fire might travel.

But a coupled weather-wildland fire model digs deeper, recognizing a relationship between a fire and the atmosphere, including wind changes, temperature shifts and gust fronts from clouds.

This enables responders to explain what was once considered phenomena, empowering officials to predict rapid changes in behavior that can cost lives and property. The advanced modeling could give as much as 12 hours advanced notice on how a disaster would travel.

“If nothing else comes out of my work, it’s my hope to convince people that ... fire behavior can be captured ... if you integrate the weather appropriately,” said Janice Coen, a project scientist with NCAR’s Earth System Laboratory, which has been working on fire-prediction technology for more than 20 years. Coen is the daughter of a firefighter.

In Colorado, the devastation from natural disasters is all too familiar.

The 2013 floods along the Front Range left several dead and more than $1 billion in property damage. The 2012 wildfires across the state also left several dead, as well as hundreds of structures destroyed.

Durango residents remember recent devastating fires in Southwest Colorado near South Fork, as well as the Missionary Ridge and Weber fires and others along the Dolores River.

In the case of floods, the technology uses a real-time system that’s designed to predict heavy rainfall, flash floods and streamflow by implementing rainfall estimation, precipitation forecasting and water modeling – all incorporated into one system. It identifies location-specific regions of heavy rainfall and potential flash floods.

Currently, only a handful of data points are used for prediction, which is why it was difficult to predict the flow and intensity of the 2013 floods.

But when the new technology is applied to 2013, researchers realized they were able to predict the direction and seriousness of the flood well before the devastation hit populated areas thanks to the luxury of having hundreds of thousands of forecast points.

“If this bill goes forward, Colorado will be the first foray into scaling in great detail ... which will provide new technology much more quickly than waiting for some less detailed version to show up,” said William Mahoney, deputy director of NCAR’s Research Applications Laboratory.

State fire officials are calling for the technology, suggesting that it could be used to better manage an aerial firefighting fleet, as well as protect firefighters and citizens from tragic consequences.

Roberts hopes the technology delivers, adding, “Any amount of time that you are given in advance to deal with (natural disasters) is very much needed.”

pmarcus@durangoherald.com