It’s nearly February and the Fort Lewis College basketball teams are halfway through conference play, which means it’s time to start looking at the postseason.
With a little over a month left before the Rocky Mountain Athletic Conference tournaments, the FLC men’s basketball team is looking to win its first RMAC regular season championship under head coach Jordan Mast and the program’s first since 2022-2023. The Skyhawks are also looking to return to the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2023-2024.
On the women’s side, in head coach Lauren Zuniga’s second year, the Skyhawks have already doubled their win total from last season. FLC is looking to finish with a winning record for the first time since 2019-2020 and make a return to the conference tournament for the first time since 2017-2018.
Here’s a look at each teams’ postseason prospects with 10 games left in the regular season:
The Skyhawks are hotter than the Sahara Desert right now, winning their last seven games and are having their best start to conference play in program history at 10-0 in the RMAC.
FLC has bounced back from one of the toughest non-conference schedules in Division II and is 12-5 overall. The Skyhawks aren’t ranked in the Division II top 25, but they have plenty of wins over top-25 opponents like Eastern New Mexico, Western New Mexico, St. Mary’s University and the RMAC’s Black Hills State. All of FLC’s losses have been to teams that were ranked or receiving votes in the top 25.
After starting conference play 10-0, the Skyhawks have a three-game lead in the RMAC. If FLC can hold on to its lead, the Skyhawks would host their conference tournament quarterfinal matchup and they won, they would host the tournament semifinals.
This would be a huge advantage for FLC as its home games are statistically the third-most attended in the RMAC. It would also be a lot easier for FLC not to travel with potential winter weather and after a season with plenty of miles on the road.
FLC definitely doesn’t have anything wrapped up with 10 games to go. The Skyhawks still have to play three of the other top five teams in the conference, with a big game at home vs. Colorado School of Mines (7-3 in conference) on Thursday, a road game at Colorado Mesa (7-3) on Feb. 12 and a road game at CSU Pueblo on Feb. 26.
Elsewhere on the schedule, the Skyhawks have their second games against Adams State, New Mexico Highlands, MSU Denver, South Dakota Mines, Western Colorado and Colorado Christian, all of which were wins for FLC in the first matchup. FLC also has a matchup with Chadron State, which is second-to-last in the conference.
While there will be tests for the Skyhawks, FLC has a great chance to win the conference with its remaining schedule, especially since the other top five of the standings have to all play each other.
FLC also has a great chance at returning to the NCAA tournament, despite having five losses. The Skyhawks built up a great Rating Percentage Index (RPI) by playing such a tough non-conference schedule. The RPI is a tool the NCAA uses to rank teams for the NCAA tournament. FLC has kept and increased its quality RPI by not losing in conference play.
The Division II NCAA tournament is 64 teams, and is different from the Division I tournament because the tournament is split into eight regions, with eight teams making it from each region. The winner of each region in the NCAA tournament advances to the quarterfinals, where the teams are reseeded.
FLC is a part of the South Central region, which consists of teams from the Lone Star Conference and the RMAC. FLC is fifth in the region in RPI and is clearly the best RMAC team in RPI, with Black Hills State in ninth in the region as the second-best RMAC team. Since FLC is currently fifth, it is in a great position for the NCAA tournament.
The big advantage that comes with getting the top seed in the region is that team gets to host the region up until the NCAA tournament quarterfinals. It’s possible for FLC to finish first, but the Skyhawks would have to drop only a game or two at the most between now and the end of the conference tournament, plus they would need the four Lone Star teams ahead of them to lose multiple times to drop.
So there’s plenty for the FLC men to play for between now and the RMAC tournament championship on March 7.
The Skyhawks women have a very similar overall record to the men, but are sitting in a very different position with 10 games left in the regular season.
FLC is 12-6 overall and 5-5 in the RMAC. It’s a great improvement over last year, when the Skyhawks finished 5-22 overall against Division II opponents and 3-17 in conference play.
However, unlike the men, the women went 5-1 in non-conference play against an easy non-conference schedule. The women haven’t beaten any top 25 opponents this season. Since entering RMAC play, the Skyhawks have lost to three of the top four teams in the conference, with their best win coming against New Mexico Highlands, which is 9-8 overall and 5-5 in conference play.
Since FLC hasn’t beaten many good teams, its RPI is 17th in the South Central region. Therefore, it’s very unlikely FLC would earn an at-large bid for the NCAA tournament since it hasn’t shown it can beat good teams.
Getting to the RMAC tournament for the first time this decade is an achievable goal. The Skyhawks are currently tied-seventh in the conference standings, with the top eight making it to the conference tournament. It won’t be easy, with games against second-place Adams State, tied-fourth Colorado School of Mines and Western Colorado remaining. Not to mention, undefeated Colorado Mesa is left on the schedule, and the Mavericks have beaten their RMAC foes by an average of 26.1 points per game.
Since the 2020 postseason, only one RMAC team has finished eighth with a losing record in conference play, so getting to .500 or better seems like the target for the Skyhawks.
There is a difference in expectations between the men and women. Zuniga has said this is a rebuild and has tried to stay away from putting any big goals or expectations on her team. Mast hasn’t shied away from his belief in getting his team back to the NCAA tournament and competing for conference championships.
The good news for Skyhawks fans is it’s reasonable to think both teams can reach the postseason for the first time since 2018.
bkelly@durangoherald.com
