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How did a dry, warm winter impact Colorado’s avalanche danger and people’s decisions?

Survey gauges how backcountry users adjusted plans during heightened risk
An avalanche that occurred earlier this winter in Prospect Basin, just north of Silverton, illustrated that avalanche danger was still present despite the low-snow winter. The Colorado Avalanche Information Center conducted an end-of-season survey to learn about safety habits among backcountry users. (Courtesy of Colorado Avalanche Information Center)

With the official start of summer rapidly approaching, the thought of winter may be in the rear view mirror for many. But with the close of Colorado’s snow season, researchers with the Colorado Avalanche Information Center have been able to compile avalanche data from the winter, which yielded some interesting findings.

In March, the state avalanche forecaster conducted a survey for backcountry users meant to better understand how skiers, snowboarders and snowmobilers accessed information about backcountry avalanche risk, a release last week said.

Specifically, the survey focused on an 18-day period of elevated danger in mid-February, when a period of heavy snowfall and strong winds created unstable avalanche conditions across Colorado’s mountains.

“Among respondents who traveled or planned to travel in the backcountry during February, 92% reported that avalanche conditions influenced their plans,” the release said. “Many reported making more conservative decisions, including choosing terrain with lower avalanche danger, staying on slopes less than 30 degrees and avoiding specific aspects or elevations.”

CAIC Director Ethan Greene said the responses are helpful in understanding what is working and what could use improvement in the organization’s messaging. CAIC’s role is to give people the best possible information before they enter avalanche terrain to recreate safely.

“That feedback helps CAIC better understand how people use avalanche forecasts, what information is most helpful and where our public safety messaging can continue to improve for everyone traveling in avalanche terrain,” Greene said in an email to The Durango Herald.

Colorado’s first and only avalanche fatality occurred near Vail on March 5. That was well below the state’s average of six deaths, he said.

“Any season with fewer fatalities is good news, but one person lost their life,” he said. “That one death had a huge impact on their family, friends, and community. Seeing how one death impacts so many people, it is really hard to call that a success. We are glad more people weren’t killed in avalanches this last season.”

Avalanche accidents are influenced by several factors, including weather, snowpack structure, terrain choices, travel patterns, and individual and group decision-making, Greene said.

This year’s low snowpack and long periods of warm and snowless weather created tricky avalanche conditions.

“This was an unusual and challenging snowpack,” he said. “A prolonged dry pattern, above-average temperatures, and limited snowfall helped create a shallow, weak and highly variable snowpack across many parts of Colorado.”

Persistent slab problems, which form during those weather periods, are where a large weak layer in the snowpack forms and is buried by new snow. That weak layer can create large avalanches and are often difficult to navigate.

“Persistent slab avalanches can be large and destructive,” Greene said. “They can break wider and deeper than expected, and they can sometimes be triggered from a distance or from lower-angle terrain connected to steeper slopes. That kind of snowpack structure is one reason this season was so tricky, even when total snowfall was low.”

He said CAIC is always working to improve how it serves people traveling in avalanche terrain, and that it will be launching a new mobile app in partnership with Avalanche Canada and Friends of CAIC ahead of next winter.

“The new app will include offline capabilities and usability improvements focused on trip planning and public safety,” he said.

The app is in its beta testing stage, and CAIC is seeking input from backcountry professionals and recreationalists alike to make the best product possible.

“We want to hear from backcountry users of all experience levels, especially people who are newer to backcountry travel or only go occasionally,” Greene said. “All of this work is part of CAIC’s ongoing effort to make avalanche information easier to access, easier to understand and easier to use before people enter avalanche terrain.”

sedmondson@durangoherald.com



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