BANGKOK (AP) — India's missile and bomb strikes on targets in Pakistan and Pakistani-controlled Kashmir have spiked tensions between the two nuclear-armed neighbors, with Pakistan's leader calling the attacks an act of war.
Claims about the initial attack and the aftermath have differed widely, with neither India nor Pakistan releasing many specific details. Making the ongoing conflict even more confusing, the internet has been "flooded with disinformation, false claims, and manipulated photos and videos,” the Soufan Center think tank said.
“This information warfare is compounded by both sides’ commitment to save face,” it said.
With ongoing fighting, it has been impossible to independently verify many of the claims, but some information can be gleaned from official statements and paired with what is known to gain greater insight into the clash:
Chinese aircraft, Russian defenses and rampant disinformation
Pakistan on Saturday said it launched hypersonic missiles from a JF-17 Thunder jet, an aircraft built by China in collaboration with Pakistan, and destroyed a Russian-built S-400 air defense system in India's border Punjab state.
India denied the site was hit, saying it would provide evidence later.
Praveen Donthi, a senior analyst with the International Crisis Group, said the two sides are “effectively at war” even though they have not yet called it that, and an “explosion of disinformation stemming from a lack of official confirmation” is causing panic among civilians, particularly among those living in border areas.
“It's become a remorseless race for military one-upmanship,” he said.
Pakistan also said Saturday it used its Fatah-II missiles to target an Indian missile storage facility and two airbases, an attack acknowledged by Indian officials who said they targeted Pakistani military bases in retaliation.
It was not clear what damage was caused in either attack, though Pakistan claimed to have intercepted most of the Indian missiles and was, in turn, retaliating for India's retaliatory strike.
Pakistan says it shot down 5 Indian planes involved in initial attack
Hours after India's attack early Wednesday, in retaliation for last month's massacre of tourists in Indian-controlled Kashmir, Pakistan's military spokesperson Lt. Gen. Ahmed Sharif claimed the Pakistan air force had shot down five Indian attack aircraft: three French-made Rafales, a Russian-made SU30MKI and a Russian-made MiG-29.
Pakistan's air force suffered no casualties, and that all of its aircraft returned safely to base, he said.
Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif repeated the claim, saying the Pakistan air force had the opportunity to shoot down 10 Indian planes, but exercised restraint and downed only the five that had fired on Pakistani targets.
He told Parliament that overall 80 Indian planes had been involved in the attack.
India, meantime, has not acknowledged any losses, though debris from three aircraft came down in at least three areas.
Events remain unclear without witness reports or video
India has all three types of jets among its more-than 700 combat capable fighter aircraft, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies' Military Balance report.
All three aircraft are fighters with the capability of carrying bombs or missiles for ground attacks.
Pakistan and India have both said their planes did not leave their home airspace, suggesting that if Pakistan's account is accurate, rather than a dogfight in the skies over Kashmir, Pakistani pilots fired multiple air-to-air missiles over a long distance to take down Indian planes.
Presuming India fired back, even though Pakistan said none of its planes were hit, the aerial skirmish would have been quite the show. But there have been no eyewitness reports or video to emerge on social media.
What is known for sure is that Indian planes were in the air and attacked at least nine targets and debris from three has been found.
It's also plausible Pakistan used surface to air missiles to hit Indian planes, which the war in Ukraine has shown to be very effective and would not have meant risking any of its own planes.
Pakistan has a wide range of such missiles, primarily Chinese-made.
Events put Chinese tech to the test
Pakistan's air force includes U.S.-made F-16s, the French Mirage and the new Chinese-built J-10C, as well as the JF-17.
In addition to American air-to-air missiles, Pakistan also has several Chinese products in its arsenal, including the PL-12 and PL-15, both of which can be used to fire at targets beyond visual range.
Pakistan's Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar told lawmakers it was the J-10C that shot down the Indian aircraft, raising the likelihood that Chinese-built missiles were also employed.
“It's interesting that Pakistan is saying it is using Chinese jets that it has imported from China to shoot down Indian aircraft,” said Lisa Curtis, director of the Indo-Pacific security program at the Center for a New American Security, a Washington think tank.
In 2019, during the rivals' previous military confrontation, “it was a Pakistani F-16 provided by the United States that was used to shoot down an Indian aircraft,” Curtis said in a conference call. “It’s interesting to see that Pakistan is relying more on its Chinese equipment than it did six years ago.”
The news convinced traders with shares in AVIC Chengdu Aircraft, which builds both the J-10C and J-17, to post large gains Wednesday and Thursday on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange.
The stock of Dassault Aviation, the maker of the Rafale jet, which is among those Pakistan claims to have shot down, dropped sharply on Wednesday on the Paris Stock Exchange, though it had recovered by close on Thursday.
Pieces of information issued by each country
India hasn't talked about what assets were involved in the attacks. The Indian Defense Ministry said the strikes targeted at least nine sites “where terrorist attacks against India have been planned.”
India showed video of eight of the strikes at a briefing on Wednesday, four in Pakistan-controlled Kashmir and four in Pakistan.
Pakistan has said 31 civilians were killed, including women and children, in Pakistan-administered Kashmir and the country’s Punjab province, and that buildings hit included two mosques.
Both sides have talked about missile strikes, but it was clear from the video that bombs also were dropped on some targets, possibly from drones. In addition to claiming the five Indian aircraft shot down, Pakistan also said it downed an unspecified number of drones on Wednesday.
Indian officials said the strikes were precision attacks, and from the videos shown it appeared specific areas of installations were targeted with individual missiles or bombs, rather than widespread areas.
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Associated Press writers Munir Ahmed in Islamabad and Aijaz Hussain and Sheikh Saaliq in New Delhi contributed to this report.
