DES MOINES, Iowa – Iowa Democrats are salivating for Hillary Rodham Clinton to run, but they harbor concerns that she’s not terribly fond of Iowa.
Was she so stung by her third-place finish in the 2008 Iowa caucuses that, if she decides to run for president in 2016 as many predict, she’ll jump over Iowa and dedicate more time courting voters in other early states?
After all, her husband, Bill Clinton, didn’t compete in the Iowa caucuses in 1992, proving a Democratic candidate can bypass the first-in-the-nation vote and still win the White House, Iowa activists noted Friday.
Asked for Hillary Clinton’s thoughts Friday, a spokesman was noncommittal.
“She is proud of what she accomplished in 2008, looks back on it all fondly, and the current energy and enthusiasm is inspiring,” Nick Merrill told The Des Moines Register in an email. “Ultimately though, this is a personal decision that in the end only she can make.”
To warm up the path for Clinton while she makes up her mind, activists from Emily’s List headed to Des Moines on Friday for a “Madam President” panel discussion.
With reporters from the New York Times, NBC News and other outlets in attendance, participants chatted about how the event felt like a kickoff for the “Clinton for President” effort in Iowa.
“Hillary Clinton-Elizabeth Warren has a nice ring to it,” said Sen. Claire McCaskill, D-Mo., who was one of four women on Friday’s panel discussion about electing women to public office.
Afterward, some in the crowd of about 90 people debated whether Clinton, who campaigned extensively here in the 2008 election cycle, might choose to invest her time elsewhere in 2016, like Republican Mitt Romney did his second time around.
“I would hope that she would not skip Iowa – I don’t think that’s good for her candidacy, and definitely it’s not good for Iowans,” said Democrat Patty Judge, a campaign organizer and former lieutenant governor.
Judge said Clinton made mistakes in Iowa last time that left her trailing both Barack Obama and John Edwards in the caucuses.
Third place was a gut punch for Clinton, who had entered the race with an air of inevitability.
“I do not believe that she was as available. I don’t believe that she really had the organization that she needed to have here,” Judge said. “And I would hope she’d come back and do it again.”
However, caucus expert Dennis Goldford speculated it might not be a good tactic for Clinton to compete hard in Iowa, where the game is all about exceeding expectations.
“Given her familiarity with people and her experience, I think there would be a high bar of expectations. If she matches that, it’s all well and good,” said Goldford, a political science professor at Drake University. “But there’s a real danger – there’s a flashing yellow light for her in Iowa. For someone who’s not well known at all, Iowa’s a flashing green light … but Hillary’s already the center of attention.”
Clinton’s campaign stumbled early in Iowa when a memo surfaced in May 2007 from a top aide that urged her to “pull completely out of Iowa and spend the time and money in other states.” That forced her to spend time tamping down speculation she would skirt Iowa.
She spent significant time here – campaigning 74 days – but that was the least face time with Iowans among the half-dozen major Democratic candidates.
Toward the end of Clinton’s campaign here, she began to point out that Iowa has never elected a woman to any federal office. Iowa is still one of only four states to never send a woman to Congress, along with Vermont, Delaware and Mississippi, noted Dianne Bystrom, director of the Carrie Chapman Catt Center for Women and Politics at Iowa State University.
Clinton told Register columnist David Yepsen in October 2007, “I was shocked when I learned Iowa and Mississippi have never elected a woman governor, senator or member of Congress. There has got to be something at work here,” she said, theorizing it may be the risk-averse nature of a state built around agriculture.
She also said, “I think Iowa poses a special burden, or a special obstacle to me because when you look at the numbers, how can Iowa be ranked with Mississippi?”
But the playing field has been reshuffled considerably, Bystrom said. Iowans in 2008 were torn between two historic firsts – the first black president and the first female president. And Edwards retained a loyal network from his second-place caucus finish in 2004.
Today, after four years as U.S. secretary of state, she’s no longer viewed as just Mrs. Bill Clinton, Bystrom said.
“If Hillary makes a decision to run, and I think she will,” said Ruth Harkin, who sits on the board that oversees Iowa’s public universities and is married to Sen. Tom Harkin, D-Iowa, “I would expect her to make a very big effort out here, and she’ll have tremendous support helping her make that effort.
“I would expect it to be very different, very different,” Harkin told the Register.
Clinton hasn’t been in Iowa since the night of her disappointing finish in January 2008.
It’s not a sign of dislike for Iowa, offered Jessica Vanden Berg, a Democratic strategist who managed Christie Vilsack’s congressional campaign last year.
Once Clinton sets foot here, the frenzy of the 2016 race begins, Vanden Berg said.
If no other Democrat challenges Clinton in 2016, Vanden Berg said, it would be smart for her to put together a caucus organization in Iowa that would help win the general election.
If there is a Democratic primary, “Iowa matters,” Vanden Berg said. “It’s different than for Republicans. For Republicans it’s a ticket out. For Democrats, it’s a momentum build.”
Meanwhile, Emily’s List President Stephanie Schriock urged Friday’s panel discussion audience to join the “Madam President” movement.
“We’re organizing,” she said.
Schriock noted that an Emily’s List poll conducted April 3-9 found that 96 percent of Democratic likely caucusgoers in Iowa say they’d consider voting for a woman, and 58 percent disagree that a female president could be perceived as weaker than a male president.
The poll of 100 Iowans had a margin of error of plus or minus 9.8 percentage points.
“Iowa’s completely ready and open and excited about the prospects for a woman president,” Schriock told the Register.
“When it comes to Hillary Clinton, she’s going to see that. And probably like all mothers and presidential candidates, they love all the states equally. That’s probably how this is going to go,” Schriock said.
