La Plata County’s economy may have slowed a bit this year, but next year the state expects to see strong economic growth in almost every sector.
Durango has recorded erratic sales tax collections, and across the county the oil and gas sector is depressed. However, at the same time home sales have been strong and unemployment has been low. In October, it was 2.6 percent, according to data compiled by the La Plata County Economic Development Alliance.
Despite some strong areas, the overall economic trend seems to be lagging last year, Roger Zalneraitis, executive director of the alliance said.
Lower sales tax collections in spring and fall could be an indicator residents have less disposable income, and spending by tourists is helping to boost sales in summer and winter, he said.
In real estate, home sales and prices were up in October and September compared with the same period last year.
These can be contradictory indicators because it’s important for homes to sell, but if residents are over-extending themselves financially to buy, an unhealthy economy can form, as it did in 2008, Zalneraitis said.
About 713 homes sold from January through October, and the average home price in October was $452,777.
However, there could be a positive trend on the horizon.
“Oil and gas prices are starting to creep up,” Zalneraitis said.
The national average in October was about $2.98 per million British thermal unit, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
From March through June, the average price in the San Juan Basin was well below $2, according to data provided by the La Plata County Energy Council.
The federal government expects prices to rise because of increasing consumption in the United States and greater demand from Mexico, according to a November report.
The price of natural gas needs to be at least $4 per mBTU for companies to start more active drilling in the basin again, said Hakan Corapcioglu, an energy market analyst with Drillinginfo, an industry analytics company.
Even if the prices don’t justify many new wells in the San Juan Basin, the higher prices could help stabilize the national companies operating in the San Juan Basin, Zalneraitis said.
Across Colorado, employment in the mining industry is expected to be almost flat in 2017, decreasing less than 1 percent, from 23,200 jobs to 23,000 jobs in 2017, according to the Business Economic Outlook from the University of Colorado Boulder.
The agricultural sector is also expected to see declines in 2017 because of lower prices for grain and cattle.
Aside from mining and agriculture, every other industry in the state is expected to see gains in 2017, according to the CU report.
Among them is the health care and social assistance sector which is expected to add 9,800 jobs in 2017, an expansion of about 3.4 percent.
But this is not expected to keep up with demand, especially in rural counties.
There is already a shortage of nurses with bachelor’s degrees, certified medical assistants and other health positions in Southwest Colorado, said Kathleen McInnis, executive director of the Southwest Colorado Area Health Education Center.
To help meet this demand, Southwest Colorado Community College is setting up a new dual enrollment program through CU’s Anschutz Medical Campus in Denver for nurses to pursue their bachelor’s degree, McInnis said.
“We designed a program that would help to keep students in this area,” she said.
mshinn@durangoherald.com
This story has been updated to correct the CU campus involved in the dual enrollment program.