Vladimir Putin’s military in size and breadth has what is likely an overwhelming advantage over Ukrainian forces, no matter how fiercely they fight in military units or individually to defend their homeland against the onslaught, or how they use the defensive weapons the West has provided. Putin has been able to mount a land assault from three sides, including from the sea to the south, and in a couple of locations along the border with Russia are separatist areas where residents would prefer to be Russian. Those locations, although small, offer one easy entree to the country.
The question as this is being written on Friday afternoon is how much destruction and loss of life Ukraine will be subjected to. Military installations were quickly hit, of course, but reports also show heavily damaged residential and commercial buildings. The latter could have occurred because of casual targeting – the Russian air force fought that way in Syria – or intentionally. With strikes on civilians, Putin may be showing that he can.
How much destruction does Putin believe will be necessary to take control of Ukraine and to subdue the significant Ukrainian spirit?
Russian experts in the West suggest that after the fighting it will be cumbersome and expensive for Putin to maintain control over Ukraine, and that that could encourage him, after he has made his point, to withdraw to the prewar border.
We are skeptical of that. In recent speeches, Putin has cited his view of 20th century history that had Russia’s strength and influence taken from it, and that they must be reasserted and reclaimed. That should rightly concern Ukraine over the long haul and other countries along Russia’s borders.
The years ahead could easily be an unsettling time in Eastern Europe.
Russia has a lot of oil, gas and wheat, and little else. Technological innovation and any imaginative capitalism are limited, as the oligarchs’ symbiotic relationship with Putin and the lack of the rule of law allow them to either absorb anything that looks financially promising or crush anything that is a threat. For good reasons, Ukrainians have looked to the West for economic prosperity and more of the rule of the law.
Putin is fighting with steel and powder. The West is responding with economic limits and barriers and by reducing Russia’s opportunities to participate on the world’s stage. The Ukrainians are taking a terrible beating and for the immediate future will likely live in the country very much changed by Russian control, but in the long run will return to the freedoms they have practiced. The U.S. will be assisting the Ukrainians as best possible, now and in the future. They deserve it.
