Over the past two weeks, delegates from 195 countries gathered near Paris to hammer out an agenda for countering the climate change that threatens significant implications around the globe in the foreseeable future.
Bookmakers could have earned handsome sums from takers on a range of likely outcomes, including doing nothing more than today’s piecemeal efforts, or, as Saturday’s agreement revealed, committing most of the world’s countries to reducing their individual greenhouse gas contributions to a growing global problem.
The deal is a major step in an essential direction: to curb rising temperatures, keeping the global average at no more than 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. What remains an open question is just how – and whether – the world will deliver on its promises.
That tension underlies what is a monumental accomplishment in global climate discussions: recognizing and committing to counteracting the rising temperatures that threaten irreversible damage if progress is not made in the next 15-20 years.
The mechanism by which the U.N.-hosted Paris talks achieved global buy-in was a requirement that developed countries contribute $100 billion annually beginning in 2020 to developing nations’ greenhouse gas reduction efforts, provided the latter countries submit a plan for how they will use the money.
In this cooperative manner, the world’s nations intend by 2050 to hold average temperatures “well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.”
It is these “efforts” themselves that are less developed, though the premise is clear: reduce global reliance on carbon-based fuels – a key step in substantially diminishing the greenhouse gases they produce when burned. The Paris agreement stipulates checkpoints every five years, beginning in 2018, to assess the world’s efficacy in reducing greenhouse gas emissions – and therefore temperatures. There is much to do between now and the middle of the century, and reaching the climate deal’s goals will require a major step up in the move away from traditional fossil fuels.
If current trends hold, the world is on pace to fall far short of the mark: 50 percent of the Paris accord’s target, which is not nearly enough – scientists predict – to avert climate-related disasters.
The changes in energy markets must therefore be dramatic and swift – a reality replete with opportunity for advanced technology as well as consternation for those invested in traditional fuel markets. Energy efficiencies should be maximized, of course, but the fundamental action the world must take is to shift toward renewable sources of energy. The technology exists, as does the global capacity to innovate further. The wildcard is whether there is adequate determination to make the change.
Until the Paris climate agreement is in full effect, President Barack Obama’s words on the matter will remain aspirational: “The world is fully committed to a low-carbon future,” Obama said in hailing the agreement. “We’ve shown that the world has both the will and ability to take on this challenge.”
