New England (16-3) at Denver (15-3)
Sunday, 3 p.m. EST, CBS/Paramount+
BetMGM NFL odds: Patriots by 5.
Against the spread: Patriots 13-5-1; Broncos 8-9-1.
Series record: Broncos lead 31-24.
Last meeting: Patriots won 26-23 in Denver on Dec. 24, 2023.
Last week: Patriots beat Texans 28-16; Broncos beat Bills 33-30 in overtime.
Patriots offense: overall (3), rush (6), pass (4), scoring (2).
Patriots defense: overall (8), rush (6), pass (9), scoring (4).
Broncos offense: overall (10), rush (16), pass (11), scoring (14).
Broncos defense: overall (2), rush (2), pass (7), scoring (3).
Turnover differential: Patriots plus-3; Broncos plus-1.
Patriots player to watch
Drake Maye: The AP NFL MVP finalist had three touchdown passes in the Patriots’ divisional round win over Houston. It marked the 13th time in team history that a quarterback had thrown at least three TD passes in a playoff game. It was also the most since Tom Brady had three in Super Bowl 52 against Philadelphia.
Broncos player to watch
Jarrett Stidham. Bo Nix's backup hasn't thrown a pass in two seasons and the only snap he played this season came on a kneel-down at the end of a blowout over the Dallas Cowboys. Stidham has appeared in 20 games with four starts in his six-year NFL career and the Patriots tried to sign him last spring before he re-signed with Denver for $12 million over two years.
Key matchup
Maye versus Denver's defense. The Broncos led the league with a franchise-record 68 sacks this season and sacked Josh Allen three times. They also forced Allen into turning the ball over four times after he had gone six straight playoff games without a turnover. Allen had two fumbles and two interceptions, including one in overtime. In the playoffs, Maye has been sacked 10 times, thrown two interceptions and fumbled six times, losing three of them.
Key injuries
Patriots: CB Carlton Davis began the week in the concussion protocol. ... LBs Harold Landry III and Marte Mapu (hip) both sat out Wednesday’s practice.
Broncos: WRs Troy Franklin (hamstring) and Pat Bryant (concussion) both participated in practice this week as did RB J.K. Dobbins, who had foot surgery in mid-November. C Luke Wattenberg appears ready to return from injured reserve. He went on IR with a shoulder injury last month.
Series notes
The Broncos have a 4-1 edge in the playoff matchups between the teams, winning all four games in Denver. The two most recent meetings were in the AFC championship games during the 2013 and 2015 seasons, and were both won by the Broncos. Denver's 20-18 win in the 2015 AFC title game on Jan. 24, 2016, was the final meeting between quarterbacks Peyton Manning and Tom Brady.
Stats and stuff
This will be the Patriots’ 13th appearance in the AFC title game in the past 25 seasons. ... The Patriots (Mike Vrabel) and San Francisco 49ers (George Seifert 1989, won the Super Bowl) are the only teams in the Super Bowl era to go undefeated on the road with a new head coach. ... Vrabel is attempting to become the eighth coach in NFL history to reach the Super Bowl in his first season with a team. ... Maye has completed 3 of 10 deep passes (20 or more yards) through his first two playoff games. The Broncos didn’t allow Buffalo’s Josh Allen a completion and intercepted him twice on nine deep pass attempts in the divisional round. ... With a win, Maye would become the first quarterback to win three playoff games against top-five defenses in the same postseason: the Chargers entered the playoffs ranked fifth, the Texans ranked first, and the Broncos ranked second. ... Maye has been strip-sacked 11 times this season, including the playoffs. The Patriots have recovered six of Maye’s fumbles on sacks, with three recoveries by LT Will Campbell. The only other quarterbacks strip-sacked 10 or more times since 2020 are Matt Ryan (11 in 2022), Derek Carr (10 in 2021) and Kirk Cousins (10 in 2021). ... Maye is one of three quarterbacks in the Super Bowl era with five or more turnovers and 10 or more sacks. He joins Russell Wilson (2014, lost in the Super Bowl) and Roger Staubach (1973, lost in the NFC championship game). ... WR Stefon Diggs has played in 16 postseason games and has 75 receptions for 965 yards and five touchdowns. He needs 35 yards to become the 18th NFL player to reach 1,000, and the third Patriots player. Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski are the only Patriots players to eclipse the mark. ... Diggs has played in the most postseason games among all Patriots players with 16. CB Carlton Davis III is second with 11 postseason games. ... LB K’Lavon Chaisson has three sacks this postseason. With another he’ll joint Willie McGinest (five in 2003 and 4 1/2 in 2005) and Garin Veris (four in 1985) as the only Patriots with at least four in a single postseason. ... The Broncos are 18-5 all time in home playoff games since their first one in 1977 during the "Orange Crush" era. ... This is Denver's 11th appearance in the AFC championship game. ... QB Jarrett Stidham makes his first start since the 2023 finale. He hasn't thrown a pass in two years backing up Bo Nix (ankle surgery), and his one snap this season came on a kneel-down to close out a blowout win over the Dallas Cowboys. ... Stidham is 1-3 in his four NFL starts with his only victory coming against the Los Angeles Chargers on Dec. 31, 2023. ... K Wil Lutz made all four of his field-goal attempts and all three of his extra points against Buffalo last week. His four field goals are one shy of the franchise playoff record of five set by Brandon McManus in the playoffs following the 2015 season. ... Last week OLB Nik Bonitto became the third player in Broncos history to force two fumbles in a playoff game. By stripping the ball from Josh Allen twice, Bonitto joined Von Miller (against Carolina in Super Bowl 50) and Tom Jackson (against Dallas in Super Bowl 12). ... ILB Alex Singleton's 14 tackles last week, including 11 solo, were the most by a Denver defender in a playoff game this century. ... DE Malcolm Roach is coming off a big game against Buffalo. He had 1 1/2 sacks and recovered a fumble.
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