After one of the warmest and driest Marches on record, managers and officials across Southwest Colorado are bracing for water supply shortages.
Shortages are expected to affect farmers and junior water rights holders, increase wildfire risk in the coming months and may even reach in-town residents, who could be asked to begin conserving water sooner.
Cortez and Montezuma County are classified as being in extreme drought, the second-worst category, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor, which tracks conditions such as soil moisture, agriculture and water supplies.
Statistical data from March reflected May- or June-like weather, according to National Weather Service weather spotter Jim Andrus of Cortez. Last month was part of a prolonged heat wave that spanned seven Western states, including Colorado, and was paired with only a trace of rain in Cortez on a single day. That followed an already meager winter snowpack.
“Looking at the snow water equivalent map, there’s just not much water up in the mountains to come down into our reservoirs,” Andrus said.
March brought just 0.08 inches of precipitation, or 9% of normal, amounting to only 0.7 inches of snow, or 14% of the monthly average.
Ken Curtis, general manager for the Dolores Water Conservancy District, said supplies in McPhee Reservoir are low, and water deliveries will be shortened, similar to conditions being faced statewide.
The Montezuma Valley Irrigation Co. will not receive its usual supply, he said, but may be in slightly better shape than reservoir-dependent systems. At this point, junior water rights holders are expected to receive about 15% of their normal allocation. Curtis said the district has been in conversation with junior rights holders throughout the spring.
While the region has faced nearly 25 years of low snowpack, with the exception of a few strong snow years, higher temperatures are the outlier this year.
“We’ve had a record warm winter,” Curtis said. “Snowpack was close to record-setting low. The forecast runoff is down near record lows potentially, with the upside being slightly better than our record bad years of 2002, 2018 and 1977.”
Curtis said the district is continuing to closely monitor runoff, but uncertainty remains. High temperatures mean more precipitation falls as rain, which does not store like snowpack. At the same time, snowmelt is arriving earlier than usual, potentially reducing water availability later in the season when demand peaks.
As a result, future projections are less predictable.
“So, we’re not fully aware of all the implications because this water is coming down earlier than anything recorded. Quantity becomes a little tough to estimate, but it was never going to be a great snowpack,” he said.
Curtis said Cortez agencies are working with municipalities, including the city of Cortez, to push conservation messaging as shortages take hold. The Montezuma Valley Irrigation Company has set a low allocation, forcing farmers to plan for conservation.
Montezuma County Sheriff Steve Nowlin said he has not yet called for a countywide fire ban. He cited recent and expected moisture, improving spring conditions and coordination with federal agencies.
awatson@the-journal.com
