Three recent events say a lot about where the 3rd Congressional District is heading:
Republicans embarrass themselves and shed supporters.Changes in voter registration since the end of last year suggest voters may be getting fed up with Republican extremism. Since the start of the year, registered voters in the 3rd Congressional District have grown by more than 4,500 while registered Republicans fell by more than 2,000. Republican losses in La Plata County account for 10% of the loss.
It doesn’t take a genius to figure out why. A case in point is Mesa County. They have 25% of the district’s registered Republican voters. Now, for the first time, unaffiliated voters outnumber Republicans. Since its takeover by its extremist wing, Republicans there continue to throw out bizarre conspiracy theories. The latest, reported by the Grand Junction Daily Sentinel, has state Rep. Matt Soper and a few other local Republicans saying Republican losses in the recent city council elections might be because of using Dominion software.
In what was once the “normal world,” people would be expected to offer evidence. These days, evidence does not matter much. Money matters. And the crazier the charge, the more money can be extracted from ideologically committed true believers.
Voters continue to shed party labels.The growth is in independents, called “unaffiliated” voters in Colorado. Unaffiliated registrations in the district grew by more than 6,500 in the first three months of 2021, with almost 600 coming from Mesa County.
But no one is flocking to the Democrats. So far, the district has added only 24 Democrats.
This continues a long-term trend. Ten years ago, unaffiliated voters made up about 25% of registered voters in the 3rd Congressional District, but today, make up 40%.
Both parties may say this is not about them, but about 2016 legislation allowing unaffiliated voters to choose which major party primary to vote in. There is some truth in this. But disdain for both major parties has been growing for a long time. In the four years before this legislation passed, unaffiliated voter registration grew almost three times faster than either major party.
Republicans have something to worry about, but Democrats are naive to think they can depend on these unaffiliated voters to turn against Republicans in numbers sufficient to win in 2022.
Western Slope Democrats seem unwilling to learn from history.Democrats lost the last three congressional elections (2016, 2018 and 2020), each time nominating candidates from elite ski-resort towns. Gail Schwartz (2016) of Aspen had been a real estate marketer. Diane Mitsch-Bush (2018 and 2020) of Steamboat Springs was a retired sociology professor. Both had won political office in their local areas before running for Congress.
Each time, Republicans successfully framed the Democrat as a ski-resort elite who cared little about rural people. If not stopped, Republicans warned, they would bring socialism to the district. It didn’t matter that both Schwartz and Mitsch-Bush had records as moderates. And no matter how many times they explained the details of their policies, few minds were changed. In their guts voters felt they knew these Democrats. They were not “someone like me.”
Now it looks as if Democrats have anointed their next candidate. Kerry Donovan reportedly has already raised $630,000 for her bid. We won’t know until her first report how much came from within the 3rd District.
According to a Feb. 16 Denver Post article, Donovan lives in Vail, outside the 3rd District. She grew up there and worked there and became a successful politician there. In the 1980s, her family bought a ranch in nearby Edwards that lies within the 3rd District.
The problem that Donovan will face – whether or not redistricting results in placing Vail in the 3rd District – is that relatively few people make voting decisions by carefully comparing and weighing candidates’ policies and attributes. Instead, different voters use different decision strategies.
For many these days it’s about whether you feel closer to the red or blue team. For others, they simply like one better than the other, then look for a policy or two to explain why. Others decide based on familiarity or where friends and family lean.
Two things seem clear. More citizens are becoming appalled at what Republicans are doing. Yet Democrats will not likely win the 3rd Congressional District by nominating another candidate from an elite ski-resort town that voters consider ultra-liberal.
Steve Mandell is a former journalist and research professional. He lives in Montrose.
Editor’s note: For 3rd Congressional District registration information, see Colorado Secretary of State Voter Registration. For easiest results, select the year and month you seek, click on the first column (All reports, Excel – XLSX) and then navigate to the “Congressional Districts” tab.
