From three geographic perspectives, 2019 will see a continuation of relatively strong economic growth. No significant stumbling blocks are likely. But “Will the recovery ever end?” is a popular question designed to trigger a nervous laugh, as a national recession at some time is inevitable.
Locally, using mostly 2017 statistics and adjusting for the 416 Fire last summer, tourism indicators have been flat: train ridership, Mesa Verde visitors, emplanements.
Farmington’s economy has bottomed out, ending its decline, with many San Juan County residents driving north to work in Durango.
Look for continued growth in Social Security income coming to Southwest Colorado as its population ages and it attracts older newcomers, and do not worry about interest rates affecting second-home purchases. Second-home buyers mostly pay cash.
Statewide, there’s a slower inflow of new residents – although the rate is twice the national average and is leading to an additional Congressional seat. 2017’s and 2018’s strong employment gains will continue through 2019. 2018’s retail sales growth was 5.5 percent above the previous year, and that percentage will continue for 2019.
Nationally, the tariff challenges are far more harmful to China than to the U.S., and expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates twice this year, not four times. Short term, that is beneficial.
The climb in housing prices in the Denver area is slowing and rents are moderating, making it easier to be a new arrival to the state. Denver and points north – Longmont, Loveland and Ft. Collins with their significant growth – are becoming one economy.
Statewide oil production will reach a new high in 2019 – Colorado is 5th in the nation – and at current prices production is profitable. Natural gas production will increase, and prices have bottomed.
Public lands visitation was strong in 2018, and that will continue.”Snowsports” (reflecting boarding as well as skiing) increased in Colorado, while it was down nationwide.
Statewide headwinds are housing and workforce-talent shortages, drought, farm commodity prices, tariffs and an underfunded PERA. Additional school funding is needed, indicated by the fact that more than half the school districts in the state are on a four-day week, previously only a rural cost-cutting step.
Coloradans, with their love of skiing and now marijuana, may be quickly viewed as lazy, but the state’s job participation is third in the nation.
All this and more from the annual Southwest Colorado Economic Outlook held last week, sponsored by Fort Lewis College’s business school, Region 9 Economic Development District and Wells Fargo Bank. Presenters were Dr. Robert “Tino” Sonora, until recently a Ft. Lewis College business school faculty member (and a Durango Herald columnist) who has taken the position of assistant director of the Bureau of Business and Economic Research at the University of Montana; Dr. Richard Wobbekind of the Leeds School of Business at the University of Colorado in Boulder; and Tim Quinlin, economist with Wells Fargo Securities based in Charlotte, N.C.
The annual economic forum continues to be loaded with insights, and for Colorado most of the statistics are very positive. That makes the content easier to appreciate, and to look forward to. 2019 will be a good year economically.
