Latinos are the ultimate swing voter. Most come from countries with socially liberal policies, but are culturally steeped in conservative values and norms rooted in the Catholic Church. And thus, unlike traditional voters in the U.S., Latinos identify with both Republicans and Democrats. They’re the ultimate swing voter. And this year, the outcome of the presidential election may well depend on how they swing, and where.
I know what you’re thinking: How could Latinos – Donald Trump’s favorite scapegoats – swing an election in his favor? After all, he blames immigrants – and migrants from Latin America in particular – for nearly everything, ranging from inflation to homicides to missing pets.
But as we wind down to Election Day, it’s becoming clear that if Trump wins, conservative Latino voters will play a key role in his victory. And even if he doesn’t win, the voting preferences of Latinos in the 2024 election will provide us with important insight into the future of identity politics in U.S. elections.
For decades, politicians have relied on identity politics to guide their campaigns. According to this logic, white people vote conservative, especially in the Midwest and the South. African Americans are shoo-ins for the Democrats, and urban white people lean to the left. By this logic, it would seem Latinos might follow the path of other minorities, voting more often than not with Democrats. But in recent years, Latinos – the nation’s largest minority group – have rebelled against traditional logic.
On Nov. 7, Kamala Harris is certain to win the popular vote, and quite likely, by a landslide. But elections in the U.S. don’t depend on total vote tallies, they depend on the logic of the Electoral College, which favors the GOP. And this year, Latinos voters may play a key role in determining who wins the right combination of so-called “swing states.”
When Barack Obama was elected in 2008, Latinos only made up just 9.5% of the electorate. Today, they account for 14% of eligible voters. But as one of the groups with lowest turnout rates, if Latinos were to turn out in high numbers, they could easily swing an election in surprising ways.
Per the Washington Post, this year’s swing states are: Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin and Nevada. Between 2008 and 2024, the share of eligible Latino voters across these seven states increased by an incredible 97%. Of course, Latinos remain a relatively small part of the electorate, but in a nation more polarized than ever, this particular group’s tendency to swing from one aisle to the other makes it particularly valuable to Trump and Harris.
So, how have Latinos voted in the past?
In 2000, 35% of Latinos voted for Bush. In 2004, he earned 44% of Latinos. Then, in 2008, Latinos swung back to the Dems, when only 31% voted for McCain. In 2012, Latinos slipped further toward the Dems, when Romney took home just 27% of the Latino vote. But in 2016, Trump – despite his xenophobic rhetoric – took 29% of the Latino vote, improving on Romney’s numbers. And then there was 2020, when Trump won a surprising 38% of the Latino vote. And while Trump lost the popular vote in 2020 by 7 million, the election came down to just 43,000 votes across Georgia (11,779 votes), Arizona (10,457 votes) and Wisconsin (20,682) votes.
Fast forward to 2024, and Trump is polling better than ever with Latinos. Although Harris leads the Latino vote in polls with just over 50% of the electorate, Trump is averaging 40% of the Latino electorate in polls, with 8% undecided.
And likely, that’s what this election will come down to: undecided Latino voters.
Ben Waddell is an associate professor of sociology at Fort Lewis College and serves on the board of Compañeros, a Durango-based immigration rights nonprofit.
