President Barack Obama’s decision to begin arming Syria’s rebels deepens U.S. involvement in a regional proxy war that is increasingly being fought along sectarian lines, pitting Sunni against Shiite Muslims, and threatening the stability of Syria’s neighbors.
Arming the rebels is bound to heighten U.S. tensions with Russia, a staunch ally of Syrian President Bashar Assad. It could further escalate a brutal, if deadlocked, civil war that has killed nearly 93,000 people and displaced millions, with no end in sight. There are fears that Assad’s stockpile of chemical weapons, believed to be one of the world’s largest, could fall into the hands of Islamic extremist groups or that he might unleash them if he feels cornered.
Obama’s decision marks a turning point for the U.S., which up to now had avoided getting drawn into the conflict militarily. A key U.S. concern had been that U.S.-supplied weapons could fall into the hands of al-Qaida-linked militants fighting alongside rebels.
However, U.S. credibility was on the line after the White House said Thursday that it has conclusive evidence that Assad used chemical weapons against rebel fighters. Obama has said in the past such use would cross a red line, suggesting greater U.S. intervention.
Washington’s decision comes at a time of several military setbacks for the rebels and the growing involvement of Lebanon’s Hezbollah militia, which is fighting alongside the regime. Hezbollah’s role was key in the capture of the strategic rebel-held town of Qusair earlier this month.
The full scope of the assistance authorized by the White House is still unclear. But the administration could give the rebels a range of weapons, including small arms, assault rifles, shoulder-fired rocket-propelled grenades and other anti-tank missiles.
Rebel commanders say they need anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles to counter the regime’s superior firepower, delivered from warplanes and armored vehicles. But Obama’s opposition to sending American troops into Syria and concern about high-powered weapons ending up in the hands of terrorist groups makes it less likely the U.S. will provide sophisticated arms that would require large-scale training.
The regime’s chemical weapons stockpiles are a major wild card in the conflict.
The Obama administration says the regime carried out multiple small-scale attacks with such weapons, killing up to 150 people. The findings announced Thursday were aided by evidence sent to the United States by France, which, along with Britain, has said it had determined that Assad’s government used chemical weapons.
Experts say Assad might have been trying to terrorize rebels and civilians, while not causing mass casualties that would trigger greater Western military involvement.
The regime is believed to be in control of its stockpiles for now. Israel has said it would strike to prevent chemical weapons from reaching Hezbollah which has fought with Israel in the past.
