Skiers crossing their fingers in hopes of snow might get their wish this weekend as a storm system is expected to reach Southwest Colorado on Sunday.
Moving in from Southern California and northern Baja, it may bring anywhere from a quarter inch to several inches of precipitation, said Kris Sanders, meteorologist at the National Weather Service in Grand junction.
The system will deliver a mix of rain and snow, especially at higher elevations.
Snow levels will start around 10,000 feet Sunday and drop overnight as cooler air moves into the region. Accumulating snow is expected mainly above 9,000 feet, with only light amounts below that elevation. Above 9,000 feet, snowfall totals could reach 4 to 8 inches, with some peaks receiving up to a foot.
Sanders warned that travelers should be prepared for potential impacts on high mountain passes – including Coal Bank, Molas, Red Mountain and Wolf Creek – particularly Sunday evening to Monday morning.
Because of recent warm temperatures, which have been about 10 to 20 degrees above historic temperatures for the past several weeks, Sanders said snowfall is unlikely at lower elevations.
Scattered showers are expected to begin Sunday morning before becoming more widespread in the afternoon and early evening, Sanders said. Some precipitation may linger into Sunday night and Monday morning, though most areas should dry out by Monday afternoon.
General thunderstorms are also possible, he said, though none are expected to be severe.
In October, a slug of moisture from tropical storms dumped 5 inches of rain in the Vallecito area, leading to flooding that forced the evacuation of almost 400 homes.
“This (the incoming storm) is not even close to that,” Sanders said. “So people don't have to worry at all with this one.”
Rainfall across the U.S Highway 160 corridor is forecast to range from a quarter-inch to a half-inch, with totals approaching an inch in the foothills of the San Juan Mountains.
Temperatures will return to seasonal norms, and should feel cooler compared to the recent stretch of unseasonably warm weather, he said. Typical daytime highs in the Durango area will reach 45 to 50 degrees, and overnight lows are projected to be in the low to mid-20s.
A second wave is likely to arrive next week and shift farther south, which may favor the San Juan's, said Braeden Winters, also a meteorologist at the National Weather Service in Grand junction.
While colder temperatures following the first wave of the storm will definitely create snow potential going into the second wave later in the week, snow levels and exact accumulations are unknown.
“Hard to say if it’s going to work out well for those looking to ski. But I do think this is our first real promising set of storms passing through,” Winters said. “I don’t think it’s unreasonable to think that this is the start of some good skiing weather.”
Purgatory Resort, north of Durango, is scheduled to open Nov. 22. Regardless of the snowfall the mountain receives over the weekend, that date should remain, spokesman Matt Erickson said.
Although the natural snow certainly helps, “We expect to fire up the snow guns as early as Saturday night and will continue making snow as temperatures permit from then on,” he said.
jbowman@durangoherald.com
